The Kansas State Wildcats and the University of Colorado Buffaloes are set to face off in a crucial Big 12 matchup at the CU Events Center on February 25. With both teams sitting outside the NCAA Tournament picture, this game takes on added significance as they jockey for position in the conference standings. Kansas State, or K-State, has struggled to find consistency, while Colorado, or CU, has shown flashes of brilliance, making this a pivotal contest for both squads.
As the regular season winds down, the margins between teams in the Big 12 are razor-thin, and this game is no exception. With K-State and CU both looking to bolster their conference tournament resumes, a win would be a significant boost to their chances of making a deep run in the postseason. The model predicts a decisive victory for CU, but given the tight nature of the conference, it's likely to be a closely contested affair, with the outcome hanging in the balance until the final whistle.
Averaging 23.5 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his ability to also contribute 5.0 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game making him a vital component of Kansas State's offense. The team's recent form has been inconsistent, with a 90-74 win over Baylor on February 17 being a notable highlight, but losses to Texas Tech, Houston, Cincinnati, and TCU have overshadowed this victory. His 23.5 points per game have been complemented by Abdi Bashir Jr.'s 13.2 points per game, as the duo has formed a significant scoring threat for Kansas State.
With 's 4.5 assists per game, Kansas State has been able to maintain a decent level of offensive cohesion, while 's 11.1 points per game have provided an additional scoring option. 's 4.2 rebounds per game have also been crucial in supporting P.J. Haggerty's rebounding efforts. The team's record of 11-16, including a 2-12 mark in the Big 12, indicates a challenging season, and their 0-11 record against Quad 1 opponents has been a major factor in their struggles, with their most recent loss being a 72-100 defeat at Texas Tech on February 21.
Averaging 16.3 points per game, is the team's leading scorer, with his ability to create shots and score efficiently being crucial for Colorado. The team's recent form has been mixed, with a convincing 83-69 win over Oklahoma State on February 21, but also a 44-78 loss at Texas Tech on February 11, highlighting their inconsistency against stronger opponents. His 2.7 assists per game also make him a key playmaker, often working in tandem with , who contributes 4.4 assists per game. With a 15-12 overall record and 5-9 in the Big 12, Colorado is looking to build momentum.
His 45% three-point shooting is not a notable aspect of 's game, but he does average 12.3 points and 5.6 rebounds per game, making him a vital contributor in the paint. 's 6.6 rebounds per game lead the team, and his 10.8 points per game make him a reliable secondary scorer, often providing a spark off the bench. 's 4.3 rebounds per game are also valuable, and his 7.6 points per game provide additional scoring depth, as Colorado looks to capitalize on their recent win and take down Kansas State. With a NET ranking of 69, Colorado will need to perform well in their remaining games to improve their postseason prospects.
Key Matchups
The matchup between P.J. Haggerty and Isaiah Johnson will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. As the leading scorers for their respective teams, their head-to-head battle will set the tone for the offense. Haggerty's ability to score from multiple levels, combined with his playmaking skills, makes him a difficult assignment for Johnson, who will need to balance his own scoring responsibilities with the task of containing Haggerty. If Johnson can find a way to slow down Haggerty, it could significantly impact Kansas State's overall scoring output.
The contrast in playing styles between Haggerty and Johnson adds an extra layer of intrigue to this matchup. Haggerty's well-rounded game, which includes rebounding and playmaking, may force Johnson to expend more energy on the defensive end, potentially limiting his own scoring opportunities. Conversely, if Haggerty can get the better of Johnson, it could create a ripple effect, allowing Kansas State's other scorers, such as Abdi Bashir Jr. and Nate Johnson, to find more favorable matchups and exploit Colorado's defense.
CHD Scout Prediction
Kansas State
74
Colorado
86
The model predicts a Colorado victory, 86-74, with an 82.8% win probability, and I agree with this assessment. While Kansas State has shown flashes of competitiveness, I believe Colorado's superior overall performance, as reflected in their NET ranking of 69 compared to Kansas State's 100, will be the decisive factor in this matchup. Specifically, the significant disparity in NET rankings suggests that Colorado has consistently performed at a higher level against similar opponents, which leads me to expect them to come out on top in this contest.
Tournament Stakes
As the season winds down, both Kansas State and Colorado find themselves on the outside looking in, with their only viable path to the NCAA Tournament being a conference tournament title. A win for Colorado would not only bolster their position in the conference standings but also improve their seeding in the upcoming Big 12 tournament, potentially setting them up for a more favorable matchup. For Kansas State, a road victory would be a significant upset, and while it may not drastically alter their conference tournament seeding, it would inject life into a season that has been marked by struggles against top-tier opponents, as evidenced by their 0-11 Quad 1 record. With Colorado holding a Quad 3 designation for this game, a loss would be a missed opportunity to build momentum, while for Kansas State, it's a Quad 1 chance to prove themselves, and ultimately, the outcome will be a referendum on the trajectory of each program, with the loser taking a significant step back in a season that has already been defined by disappointment.