The Kansas State Wildcats are set to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in a crucial Big 12 matchup, with the Red Raiders looking to bounce back from a tough 61-64 loss to Kansas, a game in which they were outscored by 9 points in the second half, and the Wildcats seeking to build on their 90-74 win over Baylor, in which they shot 52.9% from the field and scored 1.23 points per possession. Texas Tech has been averaging 70.8 points per game over their last 5 contests, while allowing 63.6 points per game, resulting in a 7.2 point average margin of victory, despite going 3-2 in that stretch. Kansas State, on the other hand, has struggled defensively, allowing 84.4 points per game over their last 5 games, while scoring 71.8 points per game, resulting in a 12.6 point average margin of defeat, and a 1-4 record in that stretch.
Key Matchups
Texas Tech's offense has been led by their strong guard play, with their guards accounting for 53.2% of their total scoring, and they want to exploit Kansas State's defensive struggles, particularly in the paint, where the Wildcats have allowed opponents to shoot 54.5% from the field over their last 5 games. Kansas State's offense, meanwhile, has been fueled by their ability to get to the free throw line, where they have shot 74.1% over their last 5 games, and they want to continue this trend against a Texas Tech team that has struggled with foul trouble, averaging 18.4 fouls per game over their last 5 contests. The Red Raiders have also been strong on the glass, outrebounding their opponents by an average of 6.4 boards per game over their last 5 games, which could be a major factor in this matchup, given Kansas State's reliance on rebounding to generate offense, with 23.5% of their total scoring coming from put-backs and second-chance opportunities.
The Red Raiders have been on a bit of a rollercoaster ride lately, with wins over Arizona, Colorado, and West Virginia, but also losses to Arizona State and Kansas, and they want to get back on track against a Kansas State team that has struggled to find consistency, with their only win over their last 5 games coming against Baylor, a game in which they scored 1.23 points per possession and shot 52.9% from the field. Texas Tech's defense has been solid, allowing just 63.6 points per game over their last 5 contests, and they want to shut down a Kansas State offense that has been struggling to find its rhythm, scoring just 71.8 points per game over their last 5 games, and shooting just 42.1% from the field in that stretch. The Red Raiders have also been strong in the second half, outscoring their opponents by an average of 4.8 points per game over their last 5 contests, which could be a major factor in this matchup, given Kansas State's tendency to fade late, having been outscored by an average of 5.2 points per game in the second half over their last 5 games.
CHD Scout Prediction
Kansas State
71
Texas Tech
87
The CHD Scout prediction has Texas Tech winning this game by 16.1 points, with a 90.5% win probability, and this is largely due to the Red Raiders' strong defense, which has been able to shut down opposing offenses, allowing just 63.6 points per game over their last 5 contests. Additionally, Texas Tech's offense has been clicking, averaging 70.8 points per game over their last 5 games, and they have been able to exploit weaknesses in their opponents' defenses, particularly in the paint, where they have shot 54.2% from the field over their last 5 games. Kansas State, on the other hand, has struggled to find consistency on both ends of the floor, and their defense has been particularly porous, allowing 84.4 points per game over their last 5 contests, which could be a major problem against a Texas Tech offense that has been able to score efficiently, averaging 1.13 points per possession over their last 5 games.
The Red Raiders have also been strong at home, with a 12-2 record at the United Supermarkets Arena, and they have been able to use their crowd to their advantage, outscoring their opponents by an average of 10.3 points per game at home. Kansas State, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, with a 2-8 record away from home, and they have been outscored by an average of 12.1 points per game in those contests. The Wildcats have also struggled to defend the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot 37.5% from beyond the arc over their last 5 games, which could be a major problem against a Texas Tech team that has been able to shoot 36.2% from three over their last 5 games. With these factors in mind, it's clear why the CHD Scout prediction has Texas Tech as the heavy favorite in this matchup, and why the Red Raiders are expected to come out on top by a significant margin.
Tournament Stakes
A win for Texas Tech would be a major boost to their tournament resume, as it would give them another quality win over a power conference opponent, and would help to solidify their position on the top-16 seed line. The Red Raiders have already built a strong resume, with wins over Arizona, Colorado, and West Virginia, but a win over Kansas State would give them another notable victory, and would help to offset their losses to Arizona State and Kansas. For Kansas State, a win would be a major upset, and would give them a much-needed quality win to add to their tournament resume. The Wildcats have struggled to find consistency, and have been unable to string together multiple wins, but a victory over Texas Tech would be a major statement, and would give them a chance to build some momentum heading into the final stretch of the season. A loss, on the other hand, would be a significant setback, and would make it even more difficult for the Wildcats to build a strong tournament resume, given their already limited number of quality wins, and their poor record in Quad 1 games, where they are 0-11 on the season.
The tournament stakes are high in this matchup, with both teams looking to make a statement and improve their position in the standings. Texas Tech is firmly on the top-16 seed line, but a loss to Kansas State would be a significant upset, and would give the Red Raiders a lot to think about heading into the final stretch of the season. Kansas State, on the other hand, is on the outside looking in, and a win over Texas Tech would be a major boost to their tournament hopes. The Wildcats have been unable to find consistency, but a victory over the Red Raiders would give them a chance to build some momentum, and would make them a more attractive candidate for an at-large bid. With the stakes this high, it's clear that this matchup has the potential to be a thrilling and closely contested game, with both teams giving it their all in an effort to come out on top and achieve their tournament goals. The Red Raiders have been strong in big games, with a 7-3 record in Quad 1 games, and they want to use this experience to their advantage, while the Wildcats want to pull off the upset and make a statement, with their season potentially hanging in the balance.