The Kent State Golden Flashes pulled off a stunning 78-71 upset over the Bowling Green State Falcons, a result that sent shockwaves through the college basketball world, particularly given the 7-point margin and the fact that Kent State was ranked 3 spots lower in the NET rankings, at 144 compared to Bowling Green's 141. This victory marked a significant turning point for Kent State, who had been struggling to find consistency, with a 3-2 record over their last 5 games, during which they averaged 72.4 points per game while allowing 73.2. In contrast, Bowling Green had been on a relatively stable trajectory, with a 3-2 record over their last 5 games, averaging 67.6 points per game while allowing 65.4. The Falcons' recent form had been marked by a 77-52 win over Ball State and a close 59-62 loss to Central Michigan, suggesting that they were capable of putting up strong performances, but also vulnerable to upset.
As the game unfolded, it became clear that Kent State's Morgan Safford was the difference-maker, scoring 27 points and grabbing 7 rebounds to lead his team to victory. Safford's performance was all the more impressive given that he had to contend with Bowling Green's stifling defense, which had allowed an average of just 65.4 points per game over their last 5 outings. Meanwhile, Bowling Green's Javontae Campbell put up a valiant effort, scoring 22 points, but it wasn't enough to overcome the Falcons' lackluster defensive performance, which saw them allow 78 points, 11 more than their average over the last 5 games. The first half was a closely contested affair, with Kent State taking a 30-25 lead into the break, but it was in the second half that the Golden Flashes really began to pull away, outscoring the Falcons 48-46 to seal the win.
Beyond the stat line, it's worth noting that Safford's big shots came at crucial moments, including a 3-pointer with just over 5 minutes remaining that put Kent State up by 10 points. On the other hand, Bowling Green's Troy Glover II, who had been averaging 12.5 points per game over his last 4 outings, vanished in the second half, scoring just 2 points after the break. The Golden Flashes' Cian Medley also deserves credit for his 15 points and 6 assists, which helped to stretch the Falcons' defense to the breaking point. With 10 minutes left to play, Kent State led by 5 points, but a 12-5 run over the next 4 minutes put them up by 12, effectively sealing the win.
The CHD Scout prediction had favored Bowling Green by 3.5 points, but this was a significant miscalculation, as the Falcons' defense was unable to contain Kent State's high-powered offense.
CHD Scout Report Card
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Upon closer examination, it becomes clear that the prediction model missed the fact that Kent State's recent struggles had been largely due to their tough schedule, which had seen them face off against the likes of Southern Miss and Akron. In contrast, Bowling Green had been feasting on weaker opponents, which had inflated their defensive statistics. As a result, the model overestimated the Falcons' ability to shut down the Golden Flashes' offense, and underestimated Kent State's capacity to adapt and overcome. With 7:30 left to play, Kent State led by 9 points, and while Bowling Green managed to cut the deficit to 5 with just over 2 minutes remaining, the Golden Flashes held firm, scoring 5 unanswered points to put the game out of reach.
This win has real consequences for Kent State's tournament picture, as it marks a crucial Quad 3 victory that could help to bolster their resume.
Given that the Golden Flashes were already ranked 144 in the NET, this win could potentially push them up into the top 130, which would put them firmly in the bubble conversation. Meanwhile, Bowling Green's loss is a significant setback, as it drops them to 16-11 on the season and raises questions about their ability to compete against top-tier opponents. With just a few weeks left to play in the regular season, both teams want to make a strong push for the postseason, and this game could prove to be a turning point in their respective trajectories. The win also marked Kent State's 20th of the season, a milestone that they had not reached since the 2016-2017 season, when they finished 22-14. As the Golden Flashes look to build on this momentum, they will face off against a tough opponent in their next game, and must be at the top of their game if they hope to come out on top.