In a stunning turn of events, Lafayette College pulled off a significant upset at Cotterell Court, edging out Colgate University by a single point, 70-69. The margin of victory belies the magnitude of the upset, as Lafayette, ranked 330 in the NET rankings, took down Colgate, which sits at 217. The implications for seed lines and tournament prospects are substantial, and this result will undoubtedly send ripples through the college basketball landscape.
The half scores reveal a tale of two halves, with Lafayette taking a 31-25 lead into the break, only to see Colgate outscore them 44-39 in the second half. Despite being outscored after halftime, Lafayette managed to hold on for the win, a testament to their resilience and ability to adapt. The disparity in NET rankings between the two teams makes this outcome all the more surprising, and a closer examination of the team statistics will be necessary to understand how Lafayette was able to defy expectations and emerge victorious.
A 29-point effort was not to be found, but the collective output of Lafayette's key players proved sufficient for the win. His 15-point, 3-rebound performance was a notable contribution from Mark Butler, who also added 2 assists to the team's tally. With the game on the line, the freshman standout Caleb Williams matched Butler's point total, scoring 15 points, though his shooting from beyond the arc was a struggle, going 0-8 from three-point range.
Erupting for 12 points and securing 14 rebounds, Christian Humphrey-Rembert's double-double was a crucial factor in Lafayette's victory. The team's ability to secure rebounds was largely due to Humphrey-Rembert's efforts, as his 14 boards accounted for a significant portion of the team's total. His 3-5 shooting from three-point range also provided a much-needed boost, as Lafayette edged out Colgate by a single point, 70-69.
Despite the loss, the team's leading scorer, Andrew Alekseyenko, had a notable performance with 15 points, complemented by 5 assists. His ability to create for himself and others was a bright spot, but ultimately not enough to overcome the deficit. Finishing with 14 points, Josh Ahayere's 7 rebounds were a significant contribution, as his presence in the paint helped to balance the team's offense.
The supporting cast, including Jalen Cox, put up respectable numbers, with Cox finishing with 14 points and 3 assists. His 7-15 shooting from the field was a highlight, but the lack of three-point production, going 0-3 from beyond the arc, limited the team's overall scoring potential. With Alekseyenko, Ahayere, and Cox combining for 43 points, the rest of the team struggled to find their rhythm, ultimately falling just short.
A notable deviation from season averages was seen in the performance of Colgate's supporting cast, with Ben Tweedy's all-around effort standing out, as his 12 points, 10 rebounds, and 8 assists significantly surpassed his season norms, with his points, rebounds, and assists per game increasing by 3.6, 7.1, and 5.4, respectively, compared to his averages of 8.4 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game.
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Final
The pre-game prediction proved to be inaccurate, as Lafayette pulled off a surprising one-point victory over Colgate. The expected margin of victory for Colgate was nearly double digits, but the actual outcome was a closely contested affair that saw Lafayette emerge on top. This discrepancy highlights the unpredictability of the game and the potential for upsets, even when the numbers suggest a clear favorite.
A closer examination of the team statistics reveals that Lafayette's ability to secure offensive rebounds played a significant role in their victory. With an offensive rebounding rate of 27.8%, they were able to capitalize on second-chance opportunities and extend possessions, ultimately contributing to their narrow win. Additionally, Colgate's struggles on the glass, particularly on the offensive end, where they secured rebounds at a rate nearly 7% lower than their season average, limited their ability to pull away from Lafayette and may have ultimately cost them the game.
The outcome of this game has significant implications for both teams' postseason positioning within the Patriot League. Lafayette's victory boosts their conference tournament prospects, as they continue to navigate a challenging schedule, and this win, albeit a Quad 3 game for them, is a crucial step in their pursuit of the auto-bid. Meanwhile, Colgate's loss, at home in a Quad 4 game, raises concerns about their ability to capitalize on favorable matchups, which could ultimately hinder their chances of claiming the conference title. As the season enters its final stretch, Lafayette's program trajectory, though still facing an uphill climb, has been slightly altered by this result, while Colgate's path to the conference championship has become more complicated, and it's clear that the Raiders' inability to win games like this one will be their downfall.