As we dive into the second half of the college basketball season, the margin for error is shrinking for teams on the bubble. For two Ohio Valley Conference squads, a non-conference matchup on January 22 could be a pivotal moment in their quests for a tournament berth. Little Rock and Southeast Missouri State, both sitting near the .500 mark, are in desperate need of quality wins to bolster their resumes. The Redhawks, with a slightly better NET ranking of 243, are favored to take down the Trojans at the Show Me Center.
Southeast Missouri State's quad record tells the story of a team that has struggled against top-tier opponents, boasting a 0-3 mark in Quad 1 games and a 1-2 record in Quad 3 contests. However, they've taken care of business against lesser foes, going 6-5 in Quad 4 matchups. Meanwhile, Little Rock's quad record is similarly underwhelming, with a 0-2 mark in Quad 1 games and a 1-5 record in Quad 3 contests. The Trojans have, however, been on a tear lately, riding a three-game win streak into this showdown.
According to the CHD Scout prediction, Southeast Missouri State is expected to emerge victorious, with a predicted score of 78-70 and a 78.5% win probability. This prediction is likely influenced by the Redhawks' home-court advantage and their slightly more impressive overall record. With neither team boasting a significant player momentum advantage, this one may come down to which squad can impose its will on the other.
CHD Scout Prediction
Little Rock
70
Southeast Missouri State
78
As the stakes are high for both teams, a win for either side could be a crucial stepping stone in their tournament journeys. While neither Little Rock nor Southeast Missouri State is currently in the tournament picture, a strong finish to the season could put them in the conversation. In the end, I predict Southeast Missouri State will take down Little Rock by a score of 78-70, leveraging their home-court advantage and slightly more impressive overall record to secure a much-needed win. The Redhawks' ability to take care of business against Quad 4 foes will be the deciding factor here, as they look to build momentum and make a push for a tournament berth.