LIU's Island Hopes Dashed by Mercyhurst Surge

In a stunning upset, Mercyhurst, ranked 288 in the NET rankings, took down Long Island University, ranked 196, by a margin of 8 points, 91-83. The first half ended in a deadlock, with both teams scoring 45 points, but Mercyhurst pulled ahead in the second half, outscoring Long Island 46-38. This unexpected result has significant implications for seed line projections and will likely send ripples through the college basketball landscape.

The final score and half-time statistics reveal a tightly contested game that ultimately saw Mercyhurst emerge victorious, defying expectations based on their relative NET rankings. Mercyhurst's ability to outscore LIU in the second half, after a evenly matched first half, suggests that the underdog was able to make key adjustments and capitalize on opportunities to secure the win.

Mercyhurst's top performers played a crucial role in their 91-83 victory over Long Island University. Qadir Martin led the team with 25 points, shooting 10-16 from the field and 5-6 from the free throw line. He also contributed 9 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 block, showcasing his all-around skills. Jake Lemelman was another key contributor, scoring 20 points on 6-14 shooting from the field, including 3-6 from three-point range and 5-6 from the free throw line.

Bernie Blunt III rounded out Mercyhurst's top performers, scoring 18 points on 5-15 shooting from the field. He struggled from three-point range, going 1-6, but made up for it by converting 7-9 free throws. Blunt III also dished out 3 assists, while Lemelman added 2 assists to his stat line. The trio's combined efforts helped Mercyhurst secure the win, with Martin's strong overall performance and Lemelman's outside shooting proving particularly impactful.

Long Island University's top performers were unable to propel their team to victory, despite posting respectable individual numbers. Jamal Fuller led the way with 26 points, showcasing his efficiency from the field and beyond the arc, while also contributing on the defensive end with two blocks. However, his relatively low rebounding total of two boards limited his overall impact. Greg Gordon added 18 points on 9-12 shooting from the field, but his lack of free-throw attempts and limited assists hindered his ability to take over the game.

Malachi Davis chipped in with 15 points and a team-high four assists, but his struggles from three-point range, missing all three attempts, prevented him from being a more significant threat. While these performances were solid, they ultimately fell short of being enough to overcome the opposition's balanced attack. The trio's efforts, though commendable, were not sufficient to offset the deficit and secure a win for Long Island University.

Deshaun Jackson Jr. and Mason Porter-Brown delivered notable performances that deviated from their season averages. Jackson Jr.'s 14 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists significantly surpassed his typical output, with an 8.1-point increase in scoring and modest bumps in rebounding and assisting. Conversely, while Mason Porter-Brown's numbers were not dramatically high, his 10 points, 9 rebounds, and 2 assists represented a substantial departure from his averages, particularly on the glass, where he nearly tripled his season average in rebounds, and in assists, where he almost doubled his typical contribution.

The pre-game prediction proved to be incorrect, as Mercyhurst emerged victorious by a margin of 8 points, contrary to the expected 3.1-point win for Long Island University. This outcome suggests that the prediction model underestimated the performance of Mercyhurst, which ultimately led to the incorrect forecast. The actual result indicates that Mercyhurst's strong showing was not adequately accounted for in the pre-game prediction, leading to a significant discrepancy between the expected and actual outcomes.

The disparity in the game's outcome can be attributed to a few key factors. Notably, both teams exhibited exceptional shooting efficiency, with Mercyhurst and Long Island University posting eFG% marks of 58.7% and 62.0%, respectively. However, Mercyhurst's ability to secure a higher percentage of offensive rebounds, at 30.8% compared to Long Island University's 26.1%, likely contributed to their victory. This advantage in rebounding would have provided Mercyhurst with additional scoring opportunities, ultimately aiding in their ability to outscore their opponents and secure the win.

The outcome of this contest has significant implications for both teams' NCAA Tournament aspirations. For Mercyhurst, the win, although against a Quad 4 opponent, is a crucial addition to their resume, but it is unlikely to substantially alter their postseason trajectory, as their overall profile, including a 0-5 record against Quad 1 and 2 opponents, remains a considerable obstacle to securing an at-large bid, potentially relegating them to a double-digit seed in the tournament if they fail to win their conference championship. In contrast, Long Island University's loss, also in a Quad 4 game, may have more profound seeding implications, as their NET ranking of #196, combined with their win-loss record and lack of victories against higher-tier opponents, could push them towards a 14 or 15 seed if they are fortunate enough to receive an at-large bid. Ultimately, the reality is that neither team has done enough to warrant serious at-large consideration, and their postseason fates will likely be decided by their conference tournament performances.