Longwood Lassos Charleston Southern

Longwood's 107-96 victory over Charleston Southern was a decisive upset, with the Lancers, ranked 274th in the NET, topping the Buccaneers, who checked in at 248. The final margin of 11 points belied a closely contested game, with Charleston Southern holding a narrow 40-28 lead after the first half, only to see Longwood pull ahead 54-42 in the second half.

The performance of Longwood's leading scorer was the driving force behind their win. The senior guard, who finished with 41 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists, more than doubled his season average of 19.5 points per game. His shooting percentage of 56.3% was also significantly higher than his season average of 45.2%. This dominant outing helped the Lancers overcome a strong effort from Charleston Southern, who received a season-high 26 points from their senior forward.

Jacoi Hutchinson's performance was a decisive factor in Longwood's victory, as he scored a game-high 36 points on 12-of-22 shooting from the field and 1-of-2 from three-point range. He also contributed 5 rebounds and 3 assists, showcasing his well-rounded skillset. Hutchinson's efficiency at the free throw line, where he went 11-for-11, helped him maintain a high level of scoring consistency throughout the game.

Redd Thompson Jr. and Jaylen Benard also played key roles for Longwood, with Thompson Jr. adding 22 points on 6-of-14 shooting from the field and 2-of-6 from three-point range, while Benard chipped in with 16 points on 6-of-9 shooting from the field and 4-of-6 from three-point range. Benard's 7 rebounds and 1 block were also notable contributions, and his ability to knock down shots from beyond the arc helped to stretch the Charleston Southern defense.

A'lahn Sumler, the Buccaneers' senior guard, led his team in scoring with 29 points, also tallying 11 rebounds and 10 assists. His 10-for-19 shooting from the field and 7-for-8 from the free throw line were key components in Charleston Southern's offense, though ultimately not enough to overcome the Eagles' high-scoring attack.

Lase Olalere, the Buccaneers' big man, had a strong night in the paint, recording 5 blocks to go along with his 17 points and 7 rebounds. However, his efficiency was not as sharp, with the majority of his scoring coming from the free throw line, where he shot 5-for-8. Jacob Taylor's 12 points and 3 assists were solid contributions, but ultimately did not have a significant impact on the game's outcome.

Jesse Hafemeister's performance stood out not only for its raw numbers, but also for the significant shift in his production. Typically a reliable scorer, Hafemeister's 9 points were nearly a 3-point drop from his season average, but he more than made up for it on the glass, grabbing 9 rebounds - a +4.1 increase from his season mark. This unexpected rebounding surge was a notable departure from his usual style, and one that contributed to the Buccaneers' offensive efforts in the game.

The pre-game prediction of a Charleston Southern victory by 8.3 points proved to be a misfire, as Longwood emerged victorious by a margin of 11 points. The model's failure to anticipate the outcome suggests that it may have underestimated Longwood's capabilities or overestimated Charleston Southern's. This discrepancy is particularly noteworthy given the significant disparity between the predicted and actual results.

A closer examination of the team statistics reveals that Charleston Southern's exceptional shooting performance, particularly from beyond the arc, was offset by Longwood's dominance on the glass. The Buccaneers' 27.6% OREB rate was a notable increase from their season average, which may have contributed to their ability to secure key rebounds and limit Charleston Southern's second-chance opportunities. Meanwhile, Longwood's 38.3% OREB rate, a significant increase from their season average, allowed them to control the paint and capitalize on Charleston Southern's struggles on the defensive glass. These factors likely played a crucial role in determining the outcome of the game.

The win for Longwood brings them to a .500 record, which, given their NET ranking, likely solidifies their position as a bubble team in the NCAA Tournament conversation. However, their Quad 1 and 2 record remains barren, which could make it difficult for them to secure a higher seed than a 15-seed, even if they continue to win games in the Big South Conference. For Charleston Southern, the loss is a setback in their pursuit of an at-large bid, as their NET ranking and Quad record are already underwhelming. Their chances of earning an NCAA Tournament berth now seem increasingly tied to winning the Big South Tournament, where a championship would likely be their best path to the tournament, even if it's as a 16-seed. The road to March Madness just got a lot more treacherous for the Buccaneers.