The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns will face off against the Troy Trojans on February 24 at Trojan Arena, a matchup that pits two teams vying for positioning in the Sun Belt Conference standings. While the Trojans are heavily favored, the Cajuns have shown flashes of resilience, particularly in their recent 67-54 win over Texas State. As the regular season draws to a close, both teams are focused on building momentum ahead of the conference tournament, their only path to the NCAA Tournament.
Despite being the underdog, the Cajuns have areas where they excel, which could potentially exploit vulnerabilities in the Trojans' game. Meanwhile, the Trojans, though favored, still need to demonstrate their ability to consistently perform at a high level, particularly after a disappointing 54-65 loss to South Alabama in their most recent outing. For an upset to occur, the Cajuns would need to capitalize on these weaknesses and deliver a strong, cohesive performance. A win for the Trojans, on the other hand, would help solidify their standing in the conference and boost their confidence heading into the postseason.
Averaging 14.5 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his 4.7 rebounds per game also making him a key contributor on the boards. The team's recent form has been inconsistent, with a 2-3 record in their last five games, including a 67-54 win over Texas State and an 85-80 victory over Central Michigan. His 2.0 assists per game have also been crucial in guiding the team's offense, often in tandem with , whose 2.9 assists per game have helped to facilitate scoring opportunities.
With a 10-19 overall record, the team is looking to bounce back from recent losses to Arkansas State and Old Dominion, where 's 12.4 points per game were not enough to secure a win. His 3.9 rebounds per game have been complemented by Joshua Lewis's 3.8 rebounds per game, providing a solid foundation in the paint. Meanwhile, 's 6.0 points per game have provided a spark off the bench, and his 2.5 rebounds per game have been a welcome addition to the team's efforts on the boards, as Louisiana looks to regroup and secure a much-needed win against Troy.
Averaging 14.3 points per game, the team's leading scorer is supported by 's 10.4 rebounds per game, which also leads the team. His 2.1 assists per game demonstrate Thomas Dowd's ability to contribute in multiple facets of the game. With a 4.5 assists per game average, is the team's primary playmaker, and his 15.3 points per game make him a significant threat on offense. The team's recent form has been inconsistent, with losses to South Alabama and Southern Miss in their last five games.
In their last five games, the team has struggled with losses to Texas State and Southern Miss, but they have also secured wins over Louisiana-Monroe and Akron. 's 13.3 points per game and 4.2 assists per game have been crucial in these victories, and his ability to score and distribute the ball has been a key factor in the team's success. His 45% three-point shooting is not listed, but his overall scoring average is complemented by 's 13.0 points per game and 's 9.3 points per game, making them a formidable opponent for Louisiana. The team's 18-11 record, including a 10-6 record in the Sun Belt Conference, demonstrates their potential to compete against strong opponents.
The matchup between Louisiana's De'Vion Lavergne and Troy's Cooper Campbell will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. As two of the primary playmakers for their respective teams, their head-to-head battle will have a significant impact on the flow of the game. Lavergne's ability to create for himself and others will be tested by Campbell's own playmaking prowess, and the team that gains the upper hand in this matchup will likely have a significant advantage.
Lavergne's 2.9 assists per game will be put to the test by Campbell's 4.2 assists per game, as both players will look to dictate the tempo of the game and create scoring opportunities for their teammates. If Lavergne can keep pace with Campbell's playmaking, Louisiana may be able to stay competitive, but if Campbell is able to outmaneuver him, Troy's offense could prove difficult to contain. The outcome of this individual matchup will have far-reaching implications for the rest of the game, making it a crucial aspect to watch.
CHD Scout Prediction
Louisiana
66
Troy
77
The model's prediction of a Troy 77-66 victory, with an 82.1% win probability, is a forecast I agree with. Given the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with Troy at #141 and Louisiana at #308, it is reasonable to expect the Trojans to emerge victorious. Specifically, the large gap in NET rankings suggests that Troy has consistently performed at a higher level than Louisiana throughout the season, which leads me to believe that they will be able to capitalize on this advantage and secure a win.
As the season enters its final stretch, this matchup holds significant implications for both teams' conference tournament positioning. A win for Troy would bolster their standing in the Sun Belt, potentially securing a higher seed and more favorable draw in the conference tournament, while a loss could jeopardize their chances of earning a first-round bye. For Louisiana, a victory would be a crucial upset, allowing them to climb out of the basement of the conference standings and potentially avoid a play-in game in the tournament. With the conference tournament representing their only path to postseason play, the stakes are high for both programs, and the outcome of this game will undoubtedly impact their trajectory. The reality is, only one of these teams will ultimately capitalize on their conference tournament opportunity, and it's likely to be the one that can string together a series of wins, not just against weaker opponents like Louisiana, but against the entirety of the Sun Belt field.