The Louisiana State University Tigers and the University of Mississippi Rebels are set to face off in a pivotal Southeastern Conference matchup at The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss on February 25. With both teams struggling to find consistency, this game takes on added significance as LSU and Ole Miss look to bolster their conference standings. For LSU, a win would be crucial in their bid to stay relevant in the SEC race, while Ole Miss is seeking to regain momentum after a difficult stretch. The small margin between these evenly matched teams is evident in the model prediction, which narrowly favors LSU.
As the season enters its final stretch, the implications of this game extend beyond the conference standings. LSU, currently on the fringe of the bubble, needs to string together wins to solidify their postseason position. A loss to Ole Miss, who is not in contention for an at-large tournament bid and must win the SEC conference tournament to advance, would be a significant setback. With both teams mired in five-game losing streaks, a victory would not only provide a much-needed boost but also serve as a testament to their resilience and ability to perform under pressure. The outcome of this game will be closely watched, as it has the potential to impact the trajectory of LSU's season and influence the conference landscape.
Averaging 14.8 points per game, has been a key contributor to LSU's offense, alongside Dedan Thomas Jr., whose 15.1 points per game make him the team's leading scorer. With a record of 14-13, including a 2-12 mark in the SEC, LSU has struggled to find consistency, particularly in recent games, having lost five straight, including an 83-90 defeat to Alabama and an 85-88 loss at Texas. His 6.5 assists per game have also been crucial for LSU, as Dedan Thomas Jr. has helped to facilitate the team's offense.
The team's rebounding efforts have been bolstered by , whose 7.6 rebounds per game are a team high, and , who averages 5.6 rebounds per game. Jalen Reed's 5.7 rebounds per game have also been important for LSU, as the team looks to turn its season around. With a NET ranking of #67, LSU will look to improve its Quad 1 record, currently standing at 1-10, as they face Ole Miss, and players like Max Mackinnon, with his 2.5 rebounds per game, will need to step up to help the team secure a much-needed win.
Averaging 13.9 points per game, is the team's leading scorer, and his 6.0 rebounds per game make him a crucial presence on the glass. With a record of 11-16, including a 3-11 mark in SEC play, Ole Miss has struggled to find consistency, as evidenced by their recent five-game losing streak. His 45% field goal shooting has been a bright spot, and the team will look to him to provide a spark against LSU. The team's recent form has been marked by losses to Florida, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State, with their last five games resulting in defeats.
The team's backcourt has been led by , whose 14.6 points per game make him a key contributor, and , who has averaged 10.7 points and 3.7 assists per game. His 3.2 rebounds per game have also been important for a team that has struggled at times on the glass. and Kezza Giffa have also played important roles, with Patton Pinkins averaging 8.8 points per game and Kezza Giffa contributing 6.6 points per game, and their production will be crucial as Ole Miss looks to bounce back from their recent skid.
The matchup between LSU's Marquel Sutton and Ole Miss's Malik Dia will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Sutton, a dominant force in the paint, averages 7.6 rebounds per game, while Dia counters with 6.0 rebounds per game. The battle for rebounding supremacy will be crucial, as both teams rely heavily on their big men to control the boards and create second-chance opportunities. If Sutton can outmuscle Dia and secure a significant rebounding advantage, LSU will likely gain a substantial edge in the paint.
The contrast in playing styles between Sutton and Dia adds an extra layer of intrigue to this matchup. Sutton's physicality and rebounding prowess will be tested by Dia's agility and scoring ability. If Dia can use his quickness to evade Sutton and score efficiently, Ole Miss may be able to neutralize LSU's interior advantage. Conversely, if Sutton can contain Dia and limit his scoring opportunities, LSU's offense will likely flourish, and the Tigers will be well-positioned to secure a victory.
CHD Scout Prediction
LSU
77
Ole Miss
76
Based on the model's numbers, which slightly favor LSU with a 54.1% win probability and a projected 77-76 score, I disagree with the prediction and believe Ole Miss will emerge victorious. The primary reason for my dissent is the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with LSU sitting at 67 and Ole Miss at 91, which suggests that LSU has performed more consistently against stronger opponents throughout the season, but this alone does not dictate the outcome of a single game, especially in a conference matchup where home-court advantage can greatly impact the result, and in this case, I think it will be enough to tip the scales in favor of Ole Miss.
As the season enters its final stretch, this matchup holds significant implications for LSU's postseason aspirations, with a win potentially bolstering their at-large case, while a loss could further jeopardize their already tenuous position on the bubble. A victory would add to their limited collection of Quad 1 and 2 wins, which currently stands at just three, and could help offset their lackluster performance against top-tier opponents. In contrast, Ole Miss is not a factor in the at-large conversation, with their sole focus on preparing for a potential conference tournament run, where they would need to navigate a daunting field to claim the auto-bid. With this game classified as a Quad 2 contest for both teams, the outcome will have a notable impact on LSU's resume, and a loss would be a missed opportunity to strengthen their case, underscoring the reality that, for LSU, every game from here on out is a referendum on their tournament worthiness.