The Louisiana State Tigers are on the NCAA Tournament bubble, and their upcoming game against the Texas Longhorns will be a crucial test of their mettle, as they've lost 4 of their last 5 games, with their sole win in that stretch being a 92-87 victory over South Carolina, where they averaged 70.8 points per game, while allowing 82.8 points per game, resulting in a 12-point deficit on average. Texas, on the other hand, has been on a tear, winning 4 of their last 5 games, with their only loss being an 82-88 defeat at the hands of Auburn, and they're averaging 81.8 points per game over that stretch, while allowing 73.6 points per game, outscoring their opponents by 8.2 points per game. The Longhorns' recent form has been impressive, with wins over Missouri, Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Oklahoma, and they'll look to continue that momentum against the struggling Tigers.
The Tigers have been struggling to find their footing, with a 1-4 record in their last 5 games, and their tournament context is precarious, as they're currently on the bubble, and a loss to Texas could severely damage their chances of making the NCAA Tournament, especially considering their Quad 1 record is 1-8, which is a significant concern for the selection committee. Texas, on the other hand, is solidly in the tournament field, with a 5-6 Quad 1 record, and a win over LSU would only strengthen their resume, as it would be a Quad 1 victory. The Longhorns have been led by their high-powered offense, which has scored 79 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games, including an 85-68 win over Missouri, where they shot 52% from the field, and a 79-68 win over Ole Miss, where they forced 18 turnovers.
LSU's Struggles in Quad 1 Games
The matchup between Texas and LSU will feature several intriguing individual battles, including the one between Texas's leading scorer, who's averaging 18.5 points per game over the last 5 games, and LSU's top defender, who's been struggling to contain opposing teams' best players, allowing them to score an average of 22.1 points per game over the last 5 games. Texas's point guard has been on a hot streak, averaging 7.5 assists per game over the last 5 games, while LSU's power forward has been struggling to find his rhythm, shooting just 38% from the field over the last 5 games. The Tigers must find a way to slow down the Longhorns' offense, which has been clicking on all cylinders, averaging 81.8 points per game over the last 5 games, while the Longhorns must contain LSU's leading scorer, who's averaging 20.8 points per game over the last 5 games.
The CHD Scout prediction has Texas winning by 10.4 points, with an 81.2% win probability, and this is largely due to the Longhorns' superior offense, which has been averaging 81.8 points per game over the last 5 games, while the Tigers have been struggling to score, averaging just 70.8 points per game over the same stretch. Additionally, Texas's defense has been stout, allowing just 73.6 points per game over the last 5 games, while LSU's defense has been porous, allowing 82.8 points per game over the same stretch.
CHD Scout Prediction
LSU
73
Texas
84
The Longhorns' recent form has been impressive, and they've been able to dominate their opponents on the glass, outrebounding them by an average of 6.2 rebounds per game over the last 5 games, while the Tigers have been outrebounded by an average of 4.8 rebounds per game over the same stretch. Texas's ability to control the tempo of the game and limit LSU's scoring opportunities matters in determining the outcome of this matchup. The Longhorns have been able to dictate the pace of the game, averaging 74.5 possessions per game over the last 5 games, while the Tigers have averaged just 71.2 possessions per game over the same stretch.
A win for Texas would be a significant boost to their resume, as it would be a Quad 1 victory, and would solidify their position in the tournament field, while a loss would be a minor setback, but would not significantly impact their chances of making the NCAA Tournament. On the other hand, a win for LSU would be a major upset, and would significantly improve their tournament chances, as it would be a Quad 1 victory, and would give them a much-needed boost to their resume, while a loss would be a significant blow to their chances, and would likely leave them on the outside looking in.
The Tigers' tournament context is precarious, and a loss to Texas could severely damage their chances of making the NCAA Tournament, as they would fall to 14-12, and would have a 2-11 record in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games, which would make it difficult for them to make a strong case for inclusion in the tournament field. Texas, on the other hand, is solidly in the tournament field, and a win over LSU would only strengthen their resume, as it would give them a 17-9 record, and a 6-6 record in Quad 1 games, which would make them a lock for the tournament. The Longhorns have been able to take care of business against inferior opponents, winning 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record, and they'll look to continue that trend against the struggling Tigers.
The game will be played at the Moody Center, which has been a difficult venue for opposing teams to play in, as Texas has a 10-3 record at home this season, and has won 5 of their last 6 games at the Moody Center, including a 79-68 win over Ole Miss, and a 84-75 win over South Carolina. The Longhorns have been able to feed off the energy of the crowd, and have been able to use their home-court advantage to fuel their offense, which has scored 80 points or more in 4 of their last 6 home games. The Tigers, on the other hand, have struggled on the road, with a 4-7 record away from home, and have lost 4 of their last 5 road games, including a 63-73 loss at Tennessee, and a 62-91 loss at Arkansas. They'll need to find a way to overcome their road struggles and pull off a major upset if they want to keep their tournament hopes alive, and they'll need to do it against a Texas team that's averaging 81.3 points per game at home, while allowing just 72.5 points per game.