The Louisville Cardinals, boasting an 8-4 record in the ACC, are looking to bounce back from a recent loss, having won 4 of their last 5 games, with their offense averaging 77.5 points per game over that stretch. Meanwhile, the Baylor Bears, struggling with a 3-9 conference record in the B12, are seeking to build momentum after a much-needed win, having lost 3 of their last 5 games, with their defense allowing 74.2 points per game over that period. This matchup has real consequences for both teams' tournament resumes, particularly in terms of quad records, with Louisville standing at 5-6 in Quad 1 games and Baylor at 3-9.
Louisville Cardinals Have Dominated Neutral-Site Games, With a 4-1 Record This Season
The game is scheduled for February 14, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET, and will be played at the Dickies Arena, with TV channel and streaming information to be announced. Fans can catch the action live, as these two teams clash in a high-stakes, neutral-site contest.
The Louisville Cardinals have been impressive this season, with an 18-6 overall record and a NET rank of 14, thanks in part to their strong 5-6 record in Quad 1 games. They have also dominated in Quad 2, 3, and 4 games, with records of 4-0, 3-0, and 6-0, respectively. Recently, Louisville has won 4 of their last 5 games, with their offense averaging 77.5 points per game over that stretch, and their defense allowing just 68.2 points per game. The Cardinals' conference record of 8-4 in the ACC has them firmly in contention for a top seed in the tournament.
Key Matchups
The Baylor Bears, on the other hand, have struggled to find consistency, with a 13-11 overall record and a NET rank of 46. Their conference record of 3-9 in the B12 has been a major concern, although they do have a respectable 3-9 record in Quad 1 games. Baylor's recent form has been uneven, with 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 games, and their defense allowing 74.2 points per game over that period. Despite this, the Bears remain solidly in the tournament field, thanks in part to their strong non-conference schedule and 2-2 record in Quad 2 games.
The matchup between Louisville's high-powered offense, which averages 77.5 points per game, and Baylor's struggling defense, which allows 72.1 points per game, will be a crucial factor in determining the outcome of this game. Louisville's offense has been particularly effective in transition, scoring 1.23 points per possession in transition, while Baylor's defense has struggled to defend the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot 35.6% from beyond the arc. Additionally, the pace of the game will be an important factor, as Louisville prefers to play at a faster pace, averaging 71.4 possessions per game, while Baylor likes to slow things down, averaging just 67.3 possessions per game.
CHD Scout Prediction
Louisville
86
Baylor
73
For Louisville, players like Jordan Nwora, who averages 18.2 points per game, and David Johnson, who averages 6.5 assists per game, will be key to the team's success. Nwora has been on a hot streak, scoring 20 or more points in 3 of his last 5 games, while Johnson has been consistent, with 5 or more assists in 4 of his last 5 games. For Baylor, players like Jared Butler, who averages 16.1 points per game, and MaCio Teague, who averages 5.5 rebounds per game, must step up if the Bears are to have any chance of winning. Butler has been cold of late, scoring just 10 points or fewer in 2 of his last 5 games, while Teague has been consistent, with 5 or more rebounds in 4 of his last 5 games.
Tournament Stakes
According to the CHD Scout prediction, Louisville is favored to win by 12.7 points, with a win probability of 85.6% for the Cardinals and just 14.4% for the Bears. This prediction is based on a variety of factors, including the teams' recent form, their performance in similar matchups, and their overall statistics. The prediction suggests that Louisville's high-powered offense will be too much for Baylor's struggling defense to handle.
This game has real consequences for both teams' tournament resumes, particularly in terms of quad records. A win for Louisville would improve their Quad 1 record to 6-6, while a loss would drop them to 5-7. For Baylor, a win would improve their Quad 1 record to 4-9, while a loss would drop them to 3-10. With the Bears already solidly in the tournament field, a loss would not be devastating, but a win would certainly help to bolster their resume. On the other hand, a loss for Louisville could potentially drop them out of the top-16 seed line, making this game a crucial one for the Cardinals.