The Louisville Cardinals, firmly on the top-16 seed line, are riding a 5-game win streak, with their last victory being an 88-74 win over the Southern Methodist Mustangs, and they're looking to extend that streak as they face off against SMU again, this time at Moody Coliseum in Dallas, where the Mustangs have been averaging 82 points per game over their last 5 contests, but have only managed a 2-3 record in that stretch, with their most recent loss being an 88-74 defeat at the hands of Louisville, and they'll need to improve their defense, which has been allowing 79.8 points per game over the same period, if they hope to take down the Cardinals, who have been on a tear, averaging 90.4 points per game over their last 5, while holding their opponents to just 73.4 points per game, outscoring them by an average of 17 points.
As the Cardinals look to continue their winning ways, they'll be facing an SMU team that has been struggling to find consistency, with a recent form that includes losses to Syracuse, NC State, and Louisville, as well as wins over Notre Dame and Pittsburgh, and they'll need to find a way to slow down the Cardinals' high-powered offense, which has been led by their ability to score from beyond the arc, where they've been making 38.5% of their three-point attempts over their last 5 games, and they've also been dominant on the glass, outrebounding their opponents by an average of 6.4 rebounds per game over the same period, which has allowed them to control the tempo of the game and limit their opponents' second-chance opportunities, and with their recent 118-77 win over NC State, they've shown that they can dominate teams on both ends of the floor, and they'll look to do the same against SMU, who has been averaging 74.4% from the free throw line over their last 5 games, but has struggled to get to the line, attempting just 17.4 free throws per game over the same period.
Key Matchups
The matchup between the Cardinals and the Mustangs will feature several key players, including the Cardinals' leading scorer, who has been averaging 22.1 points per game over his last 5 contests, and has been making 51.2% of his field goal attempts over the same period, and the Mustangs' leading rebounder, who has been averaging 9.5 rebounds per game over his last 5, and has been making 55.6% of his field goal attempts, and these players matters in determining the outcome of the game, as the Cardinals look to continue their winning streak and the Mustangs look to pull off the upset, and with the Cardinals' recent win over the Mustangs, they'll be looking to prove that they can beat them again, and the Mustangs want to show that they can compete with one of the top teams in the conference, and the game will feature a clash of styles, with the Cardinals' fast-paced offense facing off against the Mustangs' more methodical approach, and the team that can impose their will on the other will likely come out on top, and the Cardinals have been able to do that in their recent games, outscoring their opponents by an average of 17 points per game over their last 5, and they'll look to do the same against the Mustangs, who have been outscoring their opponents by an average of just 2.2 points per game over their last 5.
The Cardinals' recent success can be attributed to their ability to score from multiple positions, with 4 players averaging over 10 points per game over their last 5 contests, and they've also been able to limit their opponents' scoring opportunities, holding them to just 38.5% shooting from the field over the same period, and they've been able to control the tempo of the game, with an average of 17.6 assists per game over their last 5, and they've also been able to limit their opponents' fast break opportunities, allowing just 8.4 fast break points per game over the same period, and with their recent 88-74 win over the Mustangs, they've shown that they can beat them on both ends of the floor, and they'll look to do the same in this game, and the Mustangs must find a way to slow down the Cardinals' offense, which has been averaging 90.4 points per game over their last 5, and they'll need to improve their defense, which has been allowing 79.8 points per game over the same period, if they hope to take down the Cardinals, and they'll also need to find a way to score against the Cardinals' tough defense, which has been holding opponents to just 73.4 points per game over their last 5, and they'll need to be able to make shots from beyond the arc, where they've been making just 32.1% of their three-point attempts over their last 5 games, and they'll need to be able to get to the free throw line, where they've been making 74.4% of their attempts over the same period, but have struggled to get there, attempting just 17.4 free throws per game.
CHD Scout Prediction
Louisville
82
SMU
79
The CHD Scout prediction has the Cardinals winning by 2.7 points, with a 40.8% win probability for the Mustangs, and this is likely due to the Cardinals' recent dominance, as well as their ability to score from multiple positions, and their tough defense, which has been holding opponents to just 38.5% shooting from the field over their last 5 games, and the Mustangs must find a way to slow down the Cardinals' offense, which has been averaging 90.4 points per game over their last 5, and they'll need to improve their defense, which has been allowing 79.8 points per game over the same period, if they hope to take down the Cardinals, and the game will likely be a close one, with the Cardinals' ability to score from beyond the arc, where they've been making 38.5% of their three-point attempts over their last 5 games, and their ability to control the tempo of the game, with an average of 17.6 assists per game over their last 5, being the key factors in determining the outcome, and the Mustangs must find a way to limit the Cardinals' scoring opportunities, and they'll need to be able to make shots from beyond the arc, where they've been making just 32.1% of their three-point attempts over their last 5 games, and they'll need to be able to get to the free throw line, where they've been making 74.4% of their attempts over the same period, but have struggled to get there, attempting just 17.4 free throws per game.
The Cardinals have been on a tear, winning their last 5 games by an average of 17 points, and they've been able to dominate teams on both ends of the floor, with their recent 118-77 win over NC State being a prime example, and they'll look to do the same against the Mustangs, who have been struggling to find consistency, with a recent form that includes losses to Syracuse, NC State, and Louisville, as well as wins over Notre Dame and Pittsburgh, and they'll need to find a way to slow down the Cardinals' offense, which has been averaging 90.4 points per game over their last 5, and they'll need to improve their defense, which has been allowing 79.8 points per game over the same period, if they hope to take down the Cardinals, and the game will feature a clash of styles, with the Cardinals' fast-paced offense facing off against the Mustangs' more methodical approach, and the team that can impose their will on the other will likely come out on top, and the Cardinals have been able to do that in their recent games, outscoring their opponents by an average of 17 points per game over their last 5, and they'll look to do the same against the Mustangs, who have been outscoring their opponents by an average of just 2.2 points per game over their last 5, and the Mustangs must find a way to limit the Cardinals' scoring opportunities, and they'll need to be able to make shots from beyond the arc, where they've been making just 32.1% of their three-point attempts over their last 5 games, and they'll need to be able to get to the free throw line, where they've been making 74.4% of their attempts over the same period, but have struggled to get there, attempting just 17.4 free throws per game.
Tournament Stakes
A win for the Mustangs would be a significant boost to their resume, as it would give them a much-needed win over a top-16 team, and it would also show that they can compete with the best teams in the conference, and it would likely move them up in the NET rankings, which currently have them at 36, and a loss would be a setback, but it wouldn't be devastating, as they still have a solid record and a good conference standing, and they would still be in a good position to make the tournament, and for the Cardinals, a win would be another step towards securing a top-16 seed, and it would also give