The Loyola University Chicago Ramblers and Davidson Wildcats are set to face off at PPG Paints Arena, a neutral site, on March 12. This matchup, part of the Atlantic 10 conference tournament, holds significant importance for both teams as they vie for the conference's automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. Loyola Chicago, also known as the Ramblers, enters the contest with a recent surge in form, having gone 3-2 in their last five games, including a notable win over Richmond. Meanwhile, the Wildcats, or Davidson, have also shown promise, posting a 3-2 record in their last five outings, with a hard-fought victory over St. Bonaventure being their most recent result.
Despite Davidson being the heavy favorite, with a predicted 11-point margin of victory, Loyola Chicago's recent performances suggest they may be capable of pushing the Wildcats. The Ramblers have demonstrated an ability to compete, particularly in their last few games, which could make for an intriguing matchup. For Davidson to emerge victorious, they will need to assert their dominance and avoid complacency. On the other hand, an upset by Loyola Chicago would require a near-flawless performance, capitalizing on any vulnerabilities in the Wildcats' game. As both teams are reliant on winning the conference tournament to advance to the NCAA Tournament, the stakes are high, and the stage is set for a competitive and intense contest.
Averaging 11.3 points per game, has been a consistent contributor to Loyola Chicago's offense, while his 4.1 rebounds per game have also been valuable on the glass. With a record of 9-23, including 4-14 in the Atlantic 10 conference, the team has struggled to find consistency, but recent wins against Richmond and George Washington have provided a glimmer of hope. The team's leading scorer is not solely defined by one player, as , with 11.0 points and 7.0 rebounds per game, and Justin Moore, with 10.9 points and 3.8 assists per game, have also played key roles in the team's offense.
His 45% three-point shooting has been a notable aspect of 's game, as he averages 10.5 points per game, and his ability to score from beyond the arc has been a valuable asset. In the team's last five games, wins against Richmond and George Washington have been notable, with contributing 9.0 points per game, and Miles Rubin's 2.3 assists per game helping to facilitate the offense. As Loyola Chicago prepares to face Davidson, the team will look to build on its recent form, with Xavier Amos and Justin Moore likely to play key roles in the team's effort to secure a win.
Averaging 10.9 points per game, and have been crucial to Davidson's offense, with the latter also contributing 3.9 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game. His ability to score and facilitate has been a key factor in the team's success, particularly in recent games. With a record of 19-12, including 10-8 in the A10 conference, Davidson has shown resilience, as evidenced by their 68-63 win at St. Bonaventure on March 7. The team's leading scorer has been supported by , who is scoring 12.1 points per game, and his 3.6 rebounds per game have also been valuable.
In their last five games, Davidson has gone 3-2, with losses to Saint Joseph's and Fordham, and wins against La Salle, Duquesne, and St. Bonaventure. The team's performance has been boosted by , whose 2.2 assists per game have helped to create scoring opportunities, and , who is averaging 6.5 points per game. His 1.7 assists per game have also been important in supporting the team's key scorers, including Parker Friedrichsen, who has been consistent in his output. With their NET ranking of 106, Davidson will be looking to build on their recent form and secure a strong finish to the season.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Miles Rubin and Roberts Blums will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Rubin's ability to dominate the glass, averaging 7.0 rebounds per game, will be tested by Blums's scoring prowess, as he averages 12.1 points per game. If Rubin can limit Blums's scoring opportunities while maintaining his own rebounding edge, it could give Loyola Chicago a significant advantage. Conversely, if Blums can find ways to score efficiently against Rubin, it could open up opportunities for the rest of the Davidson offense.
The battle between these two players will be particularly important because both teams rely heavily on their respective stars to create scoring chances. Rubin's 2.3 assists per game also make him a key facilitator for Loyola Chicago, and if he can outmaneuver Blums, it could lead to easy baskets for his teammates. On the other hand, Blums's scoring ability could stretch the Loyola Chicago defense, creating space for his teammates to operate. The outcome of this individual matchup will have a significant impact on the overall flow of the game.
CHD Scout Prediction
Loyola Chicago
65
Davidson
76
The model's projection of a Davidson victory, 76-65, with an 80.8% win probability, aligns with my own assessment of the game. I concur with this prediction, as the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with Davidson at #106 and Loyola Chicago at #289, suggests a substantial gap in overall team quality. Specifically, the difference in NET rankings indicates that Davidson has consistently performed better against its schedule, which leads me to believe that they will be able to capitalize on this advantage and secure a win in this neutral-site game.
Tournament Stakes
As the season winds down, this matchup holds significant implications for both teams' conference tournament positioning, with Loyola Chicago and Davidson vying for a spot in the Atlantic 10 tournament. A win for Davidson would bolster their chances of securing a higher seed, potentially avoiding a first-round matchup, while a loss could jeopardize their standing. For Loyola Chicago, a victory would be a crucial upset, potentially launching them up the conference standings and into a more favorable tournament draw. Given the NET rankings, this game is a Quad 3 contest for Davidson and a Quad 2 game for Loyola Chicago, highlighting the disparity in their seasons. Ultimately, the outcome of this game will be a referendum on the trajectory of each program, and Loyola Chicago's ability to pull off the upset would be a stark indictment of Davidson's inability to assert dominance over a struggling opponent.