The Marquette University Golden Eagles will face off against the Georgetown University Hoyas at Capital One Arena on February 24, a matchup that carries significant implications for both teams' conference standings. With the regular season winding down, the Golden Eagles and Hoyas are looking to bolster their positions in the Big East, albeit with their sights set on the conference tournament as their sole path to postseason play. Marquette and Georgetown, or simply Marquette and Georgetown, are evenly matched, with the Hoyas holding a slight edge according to predictive models.
As the two teams take to the court, the small margins that separate them will be on full display. Both Marquette and Georgetown have struggled in recent outings, with each team posting a 1-4 record over their last five games. The Hoyas, playing on their home court, will look to capitalize on a favorable forecast, with a model-predicted 77-73 victory. With the conference tournament looming, this contest serves as a crucial litmus test for both teams, offering a glimpse into their preparedness for the high-stakes competition that lies ahead.
Averaging 16.0 points per game, the team's leading scorer is backed by , who also contributes 3.2 rebounds and 4.9 assists per contest. With his 45% three-point shooting, Nigel James Jr. has been a key factor in Marquette's offense, but the team's overall record of 9-18 and 4-12 in the Big East has been a struggle. His supporting cast, including , who averages 14.5 points and 4.2 rebounds per game, has tried to help turn the season around. The team's recent form, with losses in four of their last five games, including a 70-76 defeat to St. John's and an 88-96 loss at Xavier, has been a concern.
The presence of , who averages 12.4 points and 4.8 rebounds per game, has been a steady factor for Marquette, while 's 5.6 rebounds per game have been crucial on the glass. Zaide Lowery's 8.1 points per game have also been a welcome contribution, as his 1.7 assists per contest have helped to facilitate the team's offense. With Chase Ross and Nigel James Jr. leading the charge, the team will look to bounce back from their recent losses, including a 74-77 defeat at Villanova, and try to capitalize on their sole win in the last five games, a 70-55 victory over Butler, as they head into their matchup against Georgetown.
With a 13-14 overall record and 5-11 mark in the Big East, Georgetown enters this matchup having struggled in recent games, including losses to Seton Hall, Butler, and UConn. The team's leading scorer, backed by ' 15.3 points per game, has been a key factor in their offense, while his 5.2 rebounds per game have also been crucial on the boards. His 2.6 assists per game have helped facilitate the team's offense, and with contributing 4.2 assists per game, the team has had some cohesion in their ball movement.
Averaging 13.9 points per game, Malik Mack has been a consistent presence in the Georgetown lineup, and his ability to score has been complemented by 's 11.1 points and 5.9 rebounds per game. His 45% three-point shooting is not a notable aspect of his game, but Vince Iwuchukwu's overall scoring and rebounding have been important for the team. Meanwhile, and have provided additional scoring punch, with Julius Halaifonua averaging 9.5 points per game and Caleb Williams contributing 9.4 points and 5.4 rebounds per game, as the team looks to bounce back from their recent losses.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Marquette's Royce Parham and Georgetown's Vince Iwuchukwu will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. As the primary big men for their respective teams, their battle in the paint will have a significant impact on the game's tempo and scoring opportunities. Parham's ability to score and rebound will be tested by Iwuchukwu's defensive prowess, while Iwuchukwu's own scoring and rebounding capabilities will challenge Parham's defensive skills.
The winner of this individual matchup will likely give their team a significant advantage, as both Parham and Iwuchukwu are crucial to their teams' interior presence. If Parham can outmuscle Iwuchukwu and secure key rebounds, Marquette's offense may be able to capitalize on second-chance opportunities. Conversely, if Iwuchukwu can contain Parham and protect the paint, Georgetown's defense may be able to limit Marquette's scoring options and dictate the game's flow. The outcome of this head-to-head battle will be a key factor in deciding which team emerges victorious.
CHD Scout Prediction
Marquette
73
Georgetown
77
Based on the available data, I disagree with the model's prediction of a Georgetown victory. The model suggests Georgetown has a 63.8% win probability, resulting in a 77-73 outcome, but I believe Marquette will emerge victorious. A key reason for this assessment is the significant disparity in the teams' overall performance, as reflected in their NET rankings, with Georgetown holding a notable advantage at #93 compared to Marquette's #108, which may not be sufficient to overcome the potential for an upset, given the relatively modest difference in their overall records and the fact that Marquette may be more motivated to pull off a win against a slightly higher-ranked opponent.
Tournament Stakes
As the season enters its final stretch, both Marquette and Georgetown are focused on positioning themselves for a potential run in the Big East conference tournament, their only viable path to postseason play. A win for Georgetown would not only bolster their conference standings but also improve their seeding in the tournament, potentially avoiding a first-round matchup against a top seed. For Marquette, a victory would be a significant upset, given the Quad 2 designation of this game, and could inject life into a season that has been marked by struggles against stronger opponents, including an 0-9 record in Quad 1 games. With both teams facing long odds, the outcome of this game will have a significant impact on their conference tournament trajectory, and ultimately, the direction of their programs - and for one of these teams, a loss will be a stark reminder that their season is slipping away, with no safety net to fall back on.