Marshall defeats App State 93-94

Marshall Thundering Herd Hold Off Appalachian State Mountaineers 94-93 Behind Speer's 24 Points Marshall's 53-point second half, led by Jalen Speer's 24 points, secured a 1-point victory over App State, marking their 18th win of the season and handing the Mountaineers their 11th loss, with the Mountaineers having averaged 67 points per game over their last 5 contests, but being outdone by Marshall's high-powered offense, which has averaged 81.4 points per game over their last 5 games, with 3 of those games being decided by 4 points or less, including an 84-80 win over South Alabama and an 81-79 win over Old Dominion.

The first half was a completely different story, with App State dominating 52-41, led by Alonzo Dodd's 12 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists, with the Mountaineers shooting 55% from the field and 45% from three, while Marshall struggled, shooting just 37% from the field and 25% from three, with their leading scorer, Jalen Speer, being held to just 8 points on 3-10 shooting, but the Herd's Landen Joseph kept them in the game, scoring 12 points on 5-8 shooting, including 2-3 from three, and Marshall's 10 turnovers in the first half also hindered their ability to stay close, with App State capitalizing on those mistakes, scoring 12 points off turnovers.

The second half was a different tale, with Marshall coming out on fire, scoring 53 points, led by Speer's 16 points, including 4-6 shooting from three, and Joseph's 12 points, including 2-3 from three, with the Herd shooting 57% from the field and 50% from three, while App State struggled, shooting just 39% from the field and 25% from three, with Dodd being held to just 7 points on 2-6 shooting, and the Mountaineers' Jalen Tot, who had 12 points in the first half, being held to just 7 points in the second half, on 2-6 shooting, with Marshall's Drew Fuquay also making a significant impact, scoring 10 points and grabbing 4 rebounds in the second half, including a crucial layup with 2 minutes remaining to put the Herd up by 4, and his 5 rebounds for the game helped Marshall outrebound App State 34-32, including 12-8 on the offensive glass.

As the game came down to the wire, Marshall's ability to hit big shots and App State's inability to do so was the deciding factor, with the Herd hitting 7-12 from three in the second half, including 3-5 in the final 5 minutes, while App State hit just 2-8 from three in the second half, including 0-3 in the final 5 minutes, and the Mountaineers' Kasen Jennings, who had 12 points in the first half, was held to just 5 points in the second half, on 2-6 shooting, with Marshall's defense also stepping up, holding App State to just 41 points in the second half, after allowing 52 in the first half, and the Herd's 10-0 run over a 2-minute span in the second half, which put them up by 7, was a crucial turning point in the game, as App State was never able to fully recover.

The CHD Scout prediction of App State by 5.1 points was incorrect, and the main reason for this was the inability of the model to account for Marshall's second-half surge, which was fueled by their ability to hit big shots and App State's inability to do so, with the Herd's 50% three-point shooting in the second half being a major factor, as well as their ability to outrebound App State 12-8 on the offensive glass, which led to 12 second-chance points, and the Mountaineers' struggles from three, shooting just 25% in the second half, also played a significant role, as did the Herd's defense, which held App State to just 39% shooting from the field in the second half, after allowing 55% in the first half.

The trend data for both teams also played a significant role in the outcome of the game, with App State having averaged 67 points per game over their last 5 contests, but being outdone by Marshall's high-powered offense, which has averaged 81.4 points per game over their last 5 games, with 3 of those games being decided by 4 points or less, and the Mountaineers' recent form, having gone 4-1 in their last 5 games, including wins over Georgia Southern and Eastern Michigan, was not enough to overcome the Herd's second-half surge, and Marshall's recent form, having gone 3-2 in their last 5 games, including wins over South Alabama and Old Dominion, was a significant factor, as the Herd were able to build on their momentum from those wins and carry it over into this game.

The win for Marshall, a Quad 3 game, will likely have a significant impact on their tournament picture, as they now sit at 18-10 on the season, with a NET ranking of 148, and their Quad 3 record now stands at 5-5, with 2 of those wins coming on the road, and the loss for App State, also a Quad 3 game, will likely hurt their tournament chances, as they now sit at 18-11 on the season, with a NET ranking of 181, and their Quad 3 record now stands at 4-6, with just 1 of those wins coming on the road, and the Mountaineers must regroup and refocus if they hope to make a push for the tournament, with their next game being a crucial one, as they look to bounce back from this tough loss and get back on track.

The implications of this game are significant, as Marshall's win puts them in a good position to make a push for the tournament, with their strong offense and ability to hit big shots being major factors, and App State's loss puts them in a tough spot, as they must win out and get some help from other teams in order to make a push for the tournament, and the Mountaineers' struggles from three and on the defensive end must be addressed if they hope to make a run, with their next game being a crucial one, as they look to bounce back from this tough loss and get back on track, and the Herd's ability to close out games, having won 3 of their last 5 games by 4 points or less, will be a major factor in their tournament chances, as they look to build on this win and make a push for the postseason.