The McNeese State Cowboys, riding a five-game win streak, head to the Lakefront Arena on February 28 to face the New Orleans Privateers in a crucial Southland Conference matchup. With both teams vying for positioning in the conference standings, this game takes on added significance as the regular season draws to a close. The Cowboys, with their strong recent form, will look to assert their dominance over the Privateers, who have shown glimpses of resilience with a 4-1 record in their last five games.
As the Privateers look to pull off an upset, they will need to capitalize on any vulnerabilities in the Cowboys' armor. While McNeese has been impressive, they are not invincible, and New Orleans will aim to exploit any weaknesses to stay in contention. For the Cowboys, a win would help solidify their position in the conference, but they still need to prove they can maintain their level of performance against a hungry opponent like the Privateers. With the conference tournament looming, both teams are aware that their only path to the NCAA Tournament is through the auto-bid, making every game count in the pursuit of a championship.
Averaging 16.1 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, complemented by 's 13.9 points per game, as McNeese has compiled a 24-5 overall record and a 17-3 mark in the Southland Conference. His 45% three-point shooting has been a key factor in the team's success, with McNeese winning its last five games, including a 75-68 victory over Texas Rio Grande Valley and a 70-54 win over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. The team's recent form has been impressive, with wins over Northwestern State and Houston Christian also highlighting their strength.
With contributing 8.3 points per game and providing 8.2 points and 3.9 assists per game, McNeese has shown its depth and ability to adapt to different opponents. 's 11.0 points per game have also been crucial, as the team has navigated its schedule with a 2-2 record against Quad 2 opponents and a 5-0 mark against Quad 3 foes. His 2.8 rebounds per game, along with Larry Johnson's 5.2 rebounds per game, have helped McNeese control the boards and limit opponents' scoring opportunities, setting the stage for a competitive matchup against New Orleans.
Averaging 14.3 points per game over their last five contests, the team's leading scorer, , has been instrumental in New Orleans's recent success, which includes wins over Stephen F. Austin, Lamar, and Incarnate Word. With his 16.3 points per game, Coleton Benson has been a key contributor to the team's offense, while 's 5.4 assists per game have helped facilitate the team's scoring efforts. His 4.8 rebounds per game have also been crucial in supporting the team's rebounding efforts, alongside , who is averaging 7.7 rebounds per game.
The team's recent form, including a 77-73 win at Stephen F. Austin and a 77-71 win at Lamar, has been bolstered by the all-around play of Jakevion Buckley, whose 13.9 points per game have been complemented by his 4.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game. 's 5.3 rebounds per game have also been important, while 's 8.3 points per game have provided a spark off the bench, with his 3.1 rebounds per game offering additional support. As New Orleans prepares to face McNeese, the team will look to continue its strong play, led by the contributions of Coleton Benson, Jakevion Buckley, and MJ Thomas.
Key Matchups
The matchup between McNeese's Larry Johnson and New Orleans' MJ Thomas will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Johnson, a prolific scorer, will face a stiff test in Thomas, who boasts a significant rebounding advantage. Thomas's ability to control the glass and limit Johnson's scoring opportunities will be crucial, as Johnson's scoring average is a significant component of McNeese's offense. If Thomas can successfully contain Johnson, it could disrupt McNeese's overall scoring rhythm.
Thomas's rebounding prowess, coupled with his own scoring ability, makes him a formidable opponent for Johnson. With similar scoring averages, the battle between these two players will likely be a closely contested, low-scoring affair. If Thomas can outmuscle Johnson on the glass and limit his scoring chances, New Orleans may gain a decisive advantage. Conversely, if Johnson can find ways to score efficiently against Thomas, McNeese may be able to dictate the tempo of the game. The outcome of this individual matchup will have significant implications for the overall result.
CHD Scout Prediction
McNeese
80
New Orleans
69
Based on the data, the model predicts McNeese to win 80-69 with an 81.5% win probability, and I agree with this assessment. The significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with McNeese at #57 and New Orleans at #210, suggests a substantial gap in overall team quality, which I believe will be the decisive factor in this matchup. Specifically, McNeese's considerably higher ranking indicates a more well-rounded and efficient team, which should allow them to control the tempo and outperform New Orleans, leading to a McNeese victory.
Tournament Stakes
As the season enters its final stretch, both McNeese and New Orleans are keenly aware that their only path to the NCAA Tournament is by winning the Southland Conference tournament, making every remaining game crucial for conference standings and tournament positioning. A win for McNeese would help solidify their position near the top of the conference, while a loss could create a logjam and make their road to the tournament more treacherous. For New Orleans, a victory would be a significant upset and a much-needed boost to their conference tournament hopes, potentially altering the trajectory of their season. With the conference tournament on the horizon, the importance of this game cannot be overstated, and the outcome will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the postseason aspirations of both programs, making it clear that only one team will emerge with their tournament dreams still intact.