The Mercer Bears, seeking to bolster their position in the Southern Conference standings, will face off against the Western Carolina Catamounts at the Ramsey Center on February 25. With both teams vying for a strong seeding in the conference tournament, this matchup carries significant implications for their postseason aspirations. Mercer, currently sitting at 10-6 in SOCON play, looks to solidify its footing, while Western Carolina, at 8-8, aims to climb the ranks and gain momentum heading into the tournament.
As the regular season draws to a close, the margins between these evenly matched teams are razor-thin, with Mercer narrowly favored according to predictive models. The Bears' recent 3-2 stretch, capped by a hard-fought win over Samford, has kept them in the mix, while Western Carolina's 4-1 surge, including a convincing victory over VMI, has injected new life into their campaign. With the conference tournament auto-bid representing the only viable path to the NCAA Tournament for both Mercer and Western Carolina, the intensity and urgency surrounding this contest are palpable, making for a compelling matchup that will have significant repercussions in the SOCON standings.
Averaging 20.0 points per game, the team's leading scorer is backed by 's 5.3 assists per game, which have been crucial in Mercer's recent form. With a record of 18-11, including 10-6 in the SOCON, the team has shown resilience, as seen in their 89-86 win over Samford on February 21. His 20.0 points per game have been complemented by 's 10.7 rebounds per game, making them a formidable duo. The team's Quad 4 record of 14-2 indicates their ability to perform well against lower-ranked opponents.
The team's recent 70-54 win at The Citadel on February 14 showcased ' ability to score, with his 12.3 points per game being a significant contributor to Mercer's offense. ' 6.6 rebounds per game have also been vital, providing support to Armani Mighty's rebounding efforts. With averaging 8.4 points per game, the team has a balanced offense, which will be essential in their upcoming game against Western Carolina. His 1.4 rebounds per game may not be as significant as others, but Quinton Perkins II's presence on the court has been notable, and the team will look to him to make an impact in this matchup.
Averaging 12.2 points per game, has been a crucial contributor to Western Carolina's offense, with his 2.2 assists per game also showcasing his ability to create for teammates. The team's leading scorer is not among their most dominant rebounders, but with 4.6 rebounds per game, provides a necessary presence on the glass. His 13.3 points per game also make him a key figure in the team's scoring efforts. With a record of 12-15, including 8-8 in the Southern Conference, Western Carolina has shown flashes of strong play, particularly in their recent wins.
His 45% three-point shooting is a notable aspect of 's game, complementing his 14.2 points per game, while and have also made significant contributions, with Pettway averaging 7.6 points per game and Dioumassi contributing 7.8 points per game. In their last five games, Western Carolina has gone 4-1, with wins over VMI, UNC Greensboro, Chattanooga, and The Citadel, and their only loss in that span coming at the hands of Wofford, indicating a trend of improved form that they will look to continue against Mercer.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Mercer's Baraka Okojie and Western Carolina's Julien Soumaoro will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Okojie's exceptional scoring ability, averaging 20.0 points per game, will be tested by Soumaoro's defensive prowess. Soumaoro's 2.2 assists per game also suggest he is capable of making smart decisions on both ends of the court, which could allow him to stay in front of Okojie and limit his scoring opportunities.
If Soumaoro can effectively contain Okojie, it would force Mercer to rely on other scoring options, potentially disrupting their offense. Conversely, if Okojie can exploit Soumaoro and get into a rhythm, it could open up opportunities for his teammates and give Mercer a significant advantage. The outcome of this individual battle will have a significant impact on the team's overall performance, making it a crucial aspect to watch in this game.
CHD Scout Prediction
Mercer
81
Western Carolina
76
The model's numbers suggest a Mercer victory, with an 81-76 predicted score and a 68.0% win probability. I agree with this assessment, as Mercer's significantly higher NET ranking of 173 compared to Western Carolina's 252 indicates a substantial gap in overall team quality. Specifically, the disparity in NET rankings leads me to believe that Mercer's superior overall performance this season will be the decisive factor in this matchup, allowing them to secure a road win against Western Carolina.
Tournament Stakes
As the season enters its final stretch, this matchup holds significant implications for both teams' postseason aspirations within the Southern Conference. A win for Mercer would bolster its conference standings, potentially securing a higher seed in the conference tournament, while a loss could jeopardize its positioning. For Western Carolina, a victory would be a crucial step in climbing the conference ladder, potentially avoiding a play-in game in the conference tournament. With both teams vying for the conference tournament auto-bid, the outcome of this game will have a direct impact on their program trajectory, as a strong finish to the regular season can build momentum and confidence heading into the postseason - and for one of these teams, a loss will be a stark reminder that their season is on borrowed time.