The North Carolina State Wolfpack, currently ranked 29th in the NET rankings, are looking to bounce back from a loss in their last outing, having gone 2-1 in their last three games, with wins over ranked opponents. With a quad record of 3-5 in Quad 1 games, 8-1 in Quad 2, 3-1 in Quad 3, and 4-0 in Quad 4, the Wolfpack are projected as a top-4 seed in the tournament. Meanwhile, the Miami Hurricanes, ranked 36th in the NET, are solidly in the tournament field, having gone 2-1 in their last three games, with a quad record of 3-3 in Quad 1, 4-1 in Quad 2, 3-1 in Quad 3, and 9-0 in Quad 4. This matchup is crucial for both teams, as a win for the Wolfpack would bolster their tournament resume, while a win for the Hurricanes would strengthen their case for a higher seed.
North Carolina State Wolfpack Have Held Opponents to 60 Points or Less 7 Times This Season
The game is set to take place on February 14, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET, at the Lenovo Center, and will be broadcast on the ACC Network.
The North Carolina State Wolfpack have been impressive this season, with an 18-7 overall record and a 9-3 mark in the ACC. They have a NET ranking of 29 and a quad record of 3-5 in Quad 1 games, 8-1 in Quad 2, 3-1 in Quad 3, and 4-0 in Quad 4. The Wolfpack have been led by their stingy defense, which has allowed just 65.4 points per game, while their offense has averaged 74.2 points per game. With a recent form of 2-1 in their last three games, the Wolfpack are looking to build momentum heading into the final stretch of the season. Their tournament context is promising, with a projected top-4 seed, but they need to keep winning to maintain their position.
The Miami Hurricanes have also had a strong season, with a 19-5 overall record and an 8-3 mark in the ACC. They have a NET ranking of 36 and a quad record of 3-3 in Quad 1 games, 4-1 in Quad 2, 3-1 in Quad 3, and 9-0 in Quad 4. The Hurricanes have been led by their high-powered offense, which has averaged 79.1 points per game, while their defense has allowed 71.4 points per game. With a recent form of 2-1 in their last three games, the Hurricanes are looking to stay hot and solidify their position in the tournament field. Their quad record suggests they have a good chance of making the tournament, but they need to keep winning to avoid slipping into a lower seed.
The key matchup in this game will be between the North Carolina State defense and the Miami offense. The Wolfpack have allowed just 65.4 points per game, while the Hurricanes have averaged 79.1 points per game. The Wolfpack must find a way to slow down the Hurricanes' offense, which has been led by their 45.6% shooting from the field and 37.4% shooting from three-point range. On the other hand, the Hurricanes must find a way to score against the Wolfpack's stingy defense, which has allowed just 40.2% shooting from the field and 32.1% shooting from three-point range. The pace of the game will also be crucial, as the Wolfpack have averaged 69.5 possessions per game, while the Hurricanes have averaged 72.1 possessions per game. The CHD Scout prediction has the Wolfpack winning by 2.4 points, with a 58.3% win probability, suggesting that the Wolfpack's defense will be the deciding factor.
CHD Scout Prediction
Miami
77
NC State
79
For the North Carolina State Wolfpack, players to watch include their leading scorer, who averages 17.4 points per game, and their leading rebounder, who averages 8.5 rebounds per game. For the Miami Hurricanes, players to watch include their leading scorer, who averages 20.1 points per game, and their leading assist man, who averages 6.3 assists per game. Unfortunately, there is no player momentum data available for this matchup, but it matters to see which players can step up and make a difference in this game. The Wolfpack's leading scorer has been on a hot streak, averaging 22.1 points per game over the last five games, while the Hurricanes' leading scorer has been cold, averaging just 15.6 points per game over the last five games.
The CHD Scout prediction has the North Carolina State Wolfpack winning by 2.4 points, with a 58.3% win probability. This prediction suggests that the Wolfpack's defense will be the deciding factor in this game, as they have allowed just 65.4 points per game. The prediction also takes into account the Wolfpack's recent form, having gone 2-1 in their last three games, and their quad record, which includes a 3-5 mark in Quad 1 games. The confidence in this prediction is high, given the Wolfpack's strong defense and the Hurricanes' struggles against top-tier opponents.
This game has real consequences for both teams' tournament seeding. A win for the North Carolina State Wolfpack would bolster their resume and strengthen their case for a top-4 seed, while a loss would drop them to 18-8 and potentially out of the top-4 seed conversation. For the Miami Hurricanes, a win would strengthen their case for a higher seed, while a loss would drop them to 19-6 and potentially into a lower seed. The quad implications are also significant, as this game is considered a Quad 1 game for the Hurricanes and a Quad 2 game for the Wolfpack. A win for the Wolfpack would improve their quad record to 4-5 in Quad 1 games, while a win for the Hurricanes would improve their quad record to 4-3 in Quad 1 games.