The Michigan Wolverines, boasting a 22-1 overall record and 12-1 conference mark, are firmly on the top-16 seed line, with an impressive 8-0 record in Quad 1 games and a 3-0 record in Quad 3 games. In contrast, the Northwestern Wildcats, with a 10-14 overall record and 2-11 conference record, are struggling to find their footing, having lost their last three games, including a 75-65 setback to the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Wildcats' 77 NET ranking and 1-8 Quad 1 record make this matchup a must-win for their tournament hopes, as they aim to improve their 3-2 record in Quad 3 games.
Michigan Wolverines' 82.5 Points Per Game Average Ranks 5th in the Nation
The game is scheduled to take place on February 11, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET, at Welsh-Ryan Arena, and will be broadcast on the Big Ten Network.
The Michigan Wolverines have been on a tear, winning their last three games, including a 85-70 thrashing of the Indiana Hoosiers. With a 22-1 record, they boast the best record in the Big Ten, and their 12-1 conference mark has them sitting atop the conference standings. The Wolverines' offense has been clicking, averaging 82.5 points per game, while their defense has been stifling, allowing just 63.2 points per game. Their impressive 8-0 record in Quad 1 games and 8-1 record in Quad 2 games have cemented their position as a top seed in the tournament, with a strong 3-0 record in Quad 3 games.
Key Matchups
The Northwestern Wildcats, on the other hand, have struggled to find consistency, with a 10-14 overall record and 2-11 conference record. Their 77 NET ranking and 1-8 Quad 1 record make it an uphill battle for them to earn a tournament bid, although they have managed to go 3-2 in Quad 3 games. The Wildcats are currently on a three-game losing streak, including a 70-54 loss to the Purdue Boilermakers. Despite their struggles, they have shown flashes of brilliance, with a 5-0 record in Quad 4 games, and want to capitalize on their home-court advantage to pull off a major upset.
The Michigan Wolverines' high-powered offense, which averages 82.5 points per game, will face off against the Northwestern Wildcats' struggling defense, which allows 73.1 points per game. The Wolverines' offense is led by their 49.5% field goal percentage, which ranks 10th in the nation, while the Wildcats' defense has allowed opponents to shoot 44.2% from the field. The pace of the game will also be a key factor, as the Wolverines average 72.1 possessions per game, while the Wildcats average 68.5 possessions per game. With the Wolverines favored by 15.5 points, they want to exploit the Wildcats' defensive weaknesses and secure a convincing win.
CHD Scout Prediction
Michigan
88
Northwestern
65
For the Michigan Wolverines, players like Hunter Dickinson, who averages 17.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game, and Jett Howard, who averages 15.1 points and 4.5 assists per game, matters in this matchup. The Wolverines' bench has also been a key factor, with players like Kobe Bufkin and Terrance Williams II contributing 10.5 and 8.1 points per game, respectively. For the Northwestern Wildcats, players like Boo Buie, who averages 17.1 points and 4.2 assists per game, and Ty Berry, who averages 12.5 points and 4.1 rebounds per game, must step up if they hope to pull off the upset. However, with no notable player momentum data available, it's difficult to predict which players will rise to the occasion.
Tournament Stakes
The CHD Scout prediction has the Michigan Wolverines winning by 22.8 points, with a 4% win probability for the Northwestern Wildcats. This prediction is based on the Wolverines' dominant offense and stifling defense, which have been the hallmark of their 22-1 record. With the Wolverines averaging 82.5 points per game and allowing just 63.2 points per game, it's difficult to envision a scenario in which the Wildcats can keep pace.
A win for the Michigan Wolverines would further solidify their position as a top seed in the tournament, while a loss would be a significant upset. For the Northwestern Wildcats, a win would be a much-needed quality victory, improving their 1-8 Quad 1 record and bolstering their tournament resume. However, with the Wildcats' 77 NET ranking and 2-11 conference record, it's unlikely that a single win would be enough to propel them into the tournament conversation. The Wildcats would need to win out and hope for other teams to falter in order to have a realistic chance at earning a bid.