The Sam Houston State Bearkats are riding a five-game winning streak, averaging 78.8 points per game over that stretch, and they'll look to keep that momentum going against the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders, who have struggled lately, losing four of their last five games, including a 60-65 defeat at the hands of Western Kentucky, where they were outscored by 5 points in the second half. Middle Tennessee has been scoring well, averaging 80.4 points per game over their last five, but their defense has been a concern, allowing 82.2 points per game, which could be a problem against a Sam Houston team that has been clicking on offense, outscoring their opponents by 4.8 points per game over their last five. Sam Houston's recent form has been impressive, with wins over Kennesaw State, UTEP, Louisiana Tech, and Missouri State, and they'll look to keep that going against a Middle Tennessee team that has been inconsistent, to say the least.
As we take a closer look at the individual players,
Key Matchups
it's clear that Sam Houston has a number of weapons at their disposal, including their leading scorer, who has been on a tear lately, averaging 22.5 points per game over his last three contests. Middle Tennessee, on the other hand, has been led by their own star player, who has been putting up big numbers, averaging 25.8 points per game over his last five, but he'll need to get some help from his teammates if they're going to keep up with Sam Houston's high-powered offense. One area where Middle Tennessee may be able to exploit Sam Houston is on the glass, where they have a significant rebounding advantage, averaging 38.5 rebounds per game to Sam Houston's 34.2. However, Sam Houston has been doing a good job of limiting their opponents' second-chance opportunities, allowing just 9.5 second-chance points per game over their last five.
The trends suggest that Sam Houston should be able to come out on top here, and the CHD Scout prediction agrees,
CHD Scout Prediction
Middle Tennessee
71
Sam Houston
81
with Sam Houston favored by 10 points and an 80.3% win probability. The reason for this is largely due to Sam Houston's ability to score efficiently, averaging 1.13 points per possession over their last five games, while Middle Tennessee has struggled to defend, allowing 1.15 points per possession over that same stretch. Additionally, Sam Houston has been doing a good job of taking care of the ball, averaging just 12.2 turnovers per game over their last five, while Middle Tennessee has been forcing an average of 15.4 turnovers per game over that same stretch. If Sam Houston can continue to take care of the ball and score efficiently, they should be able to come out on top.
The tournament stakes are high for both teams,
Tournament Stakes
as a win would be a big boost to their respective resumes. For Sam Houston, a win would be their first Quad 2 victory of the season, and would help to strengthen their case for an at-large bid. For Middle Tennessee, a win would be a huge upset, and would give them a much-needed quality win to add to their resume. A loss, on the other hand, would be a significant setback for Middle Tennessee, and would make it even more difficult for them to make a push for the tournament. For Sam Houston, a loss would be a disappointment, but it wouldn't be a devastating blow, as they still have a number of quality wins on their resume. However, it would give Middle Tennessee a big boost, and would make their remaining games even more critical.
As we look at the recent form of both teams, it's clear that Sam Houston has been playing some of their best basketball of the season, with four wins in their last five games, including a 80-71 win over Missouri State, where they outscored the Bears by 9 points in the second half. Middle Tennessee, on the other hand, has been struggling, with just one win in their last five games, and they'll need to find a way to turn things around if they're going to keep up with Sam Houston. One area where Middle Tennessee may be able to find some success is in the paint, where they have a significant advantage in terms of size and strength. However, Sam Houston has been doing a good job of defending the paint, allowing just 28.5 points per game in the paint over their last five, and they'll need to continue to do so if they're going to come out on top. With the game just hours away, it's clear that both teams are ready to go, and it should be a competitive and exciting contest. Sam Houston is averaging 45.6% shooting from the field over their last five games, while Middle Tennessee is averaging 43.9% shooting from the field over that same stretch. The team that can find a way to shoot the ball more efficiently will likely come out on top.