The Mississippi State Bulldogs, currently ranked 100 in the NET rankings, travel to Oxford to face the Ole Miss Rebels, who are ranked 85, in a game that could significantly impact both teams' quad records, with the Rebels looking to improve their 1-10 Quad 1 record and the Bulldogs seeking to better their 2-9 Quad 1 mark. With both teams sitting at 11-13 overall and 3-8 in conference play, this matchup is crucial for building momentum, especially considering the Rebels' recent 5-game losing streak, during which they have averaged just 68.4 points per game.
Mississippi State Bulldogs' Struggles in Quad 1 Games
The game is scheduled for February 14, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET, and will be held at The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss, with television and streaming options to be announced. Fans can expect a high-intensity matchup, given the rivalry between the two teams and the importance of the game in the context of the SEC standings, where both teams are currently tied for 12th place, with the Rebels having a slightly better conference scoring margin, at -2.5 points per game.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs have had a tumultuous season, with a record of 11-13 and a NET ranking of 100, which puts them on the outside looking in when it comes to tournament considerations. Their recent form has been inconsistent, with a record of 1-4 over their last 5 games, during which they have averaged 72.2 points per game, while allowing their opponents to score an average of 78.4 points per game. The Bulldogs have struggled in Quad 1 games, with a record of 2-9, and want to improve their quad record against the Rebels, who are considered a Quad 2 opponent. Mississippi State's conference record of 3-8 is also a concern, with the team having a -3.1 scoring margin in SEC play.
Key Matchups
The Ole Miss Rebels, with a record of 11-13 and a NET ranking of 85, are in a similar situation to their in-state rivals, needing quality wins to build a tournament resume. The Rebels have struggled recently, with a 5-game losing streak, during which they have averaged just 65.8 points per game, while allowing their opponents to score an average of 74.2 points per game. Their conference record of 3-8 is also a concern, with the team having a -2.5 scoring margin in SEC play. However, the Rebels have a slightly better quad record than the Bulldogs, with a 1-10 mark in Quad 1 games and a 2-2 record in Quad 2 games. Ole Miss want to capitalize on their home-court advantage, where they have a 7-5 record this season, to snap their losing streak and improve their tournament chances.
The matchup between the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Ole Miss Rebels will be a battle of contrasting styles, with the Bulldogs averaging 74.5 points per game and the Rebels averaging 71.9 points per game. The Rebels have a significant edge in terms of defensive efficiency, allowing just 69.1 points per game, while the Bulldogs have allowed an average of 73.4 points per game. The pace of the game will also be a key factor, with the Bulldogs averaging 71.4 possessions per game and the Rebels averaging 69.5 possessions per game. According to the CHD Scout prediction, the Rebels are favored to win by 8.7 points, with a 77.1% win probability, which suggests that their defensive prowess and home-court advantage will give them the edge they need to secure a crucial victory.
CHD Scout Prediction
Mississippi State
71
Ole Miss
80
For the Mississippi State Bulldogs, players like Iverson Molinar, who is averaging 14.5 points per game, and Tolu Smith, who is averaging 12.8 points and 7.5 rebounds per game, will be key to their chances of success. For the Ole Miss Rebels, players like Matthew Murrell, who is averaging 13.4 points per game, and Jaemyn Brakefield, who is averaging 10.8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game, matters in determining the outcome of the game. Unfortunately, there is no player momentum data available for this matchup, but it's clear that these players will have a significant impact on the game's outcome.
Tournament Stakes
The CHD Scout prediction has the Ole Miss Rebels winning by 8.7 points, with a 77.1% win probability, which suggests that the Rebels' defensive efficiency and home-court advantage will give them the edge they need to secure a crucial victory. This prediction is based on a complex analysis of team and player statistics, including NET rankings, quad records, and conference performance. With the Rebels averaging 71.9 points per game and the Bulldogs averaging 74.5 points per game, this matchup is expected to be a high-scoring affair, but the Rebels' defensive prowess is expected to be the deciding factor.
This game has real consequences for both teams' tournament hopes, with the winner potentially improving their quad record and NET ranking. For the Ole Miss Rebels, a win would be a crucial Quad 2 victory, improving their record to 3-10 in Quad 1 and 2 games, and potentially boosting their NET ranking. For the Mississippi State Bulldogs, a win would be a much-needed Quad 2 victory, improving their record to 3-9 in Quad 1 and 2 games, and potentially keeping their tournament hopes alive. With both teams currently on the bubble, this matchup is a must-see for college basketball fans, as it could have a significant impact on the tournament landscape.