The Mississippi State Bulldogs delivered a stunning 12-point upset over the Mississippi Rebels, winning 90-78 in a non-conference matchup at The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss. This victory marked a significant upset, as Mississippi State, ranked 102 in the NET rankings, took down the 84 NET-ranked Rebels. Josh Hubbard led the charge for the Bulldogs, scoring 32 points and dishing out 6 assists, while Malik Dia paced the Rebels with 32 points and 7 rebounds. The Bulldogs' 47-point first half set the tone for the game, as they built a 19-point lead by halftime.
Josh Hubbard's 32 Points Mark His 5th 30-Point Game This Season
The game unfolded with the Bulldogs dominating the first half, outscoring the Rebels 47-28. Mississippi State's hot start was fueled by Josh Hubbard's 18 first-half points, including 4 three-pointers. The Rebels struggled to find their rhythm, shooting just 32% from the field in the first half. However, they regrouped in the second half, outscoring the Bulldogs 50-43 behind Malik Dia's 21 second-half points. Despite the Rebels' late surge, the Bulldogs maintained their lead, securing the 12-point victory. The Rebels' AJ Storr chipped in with 21 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists, but it wasn't enough to overcome the Bulldogs' strong start. Mississippi State's 90 points marked their highest scoring output in their last 5 games.
The top performers for both teams stole the show, with Josh Hubbard and Malik Dia leading the way. Hubbard's 32 points and 6 assists paced the Bulldogs, while Dia's 32 points and 7 rebounds led the Rebels. For the Bulldogs, Achor Achor added 18 points and 5 rebounds, and Jayden Epps contributed 12 points and 7 rebounds. On the Rebels' side, AJ Storr's 21 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists made him a notable performer, and Eduardo Klafke chipped in with 6 points and 5 rebounds. The Rebels' top performers combined for 59 points, but the team's overall shooting percentage of 41% hindered their chances of winning.
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A closer look at the box score reveals some key statistical takeaways. The Bulldogs outrebounded the Rebels 37-32, including 12 offensive rebounds that led to 15 second-chance points. Mississippi State also shot 51% from the field, including 44% from three-point range, where they made 11 of 25 attempts. The Rebels, on the other hand, struggled with turnovers, committing 15 giveaways that resulted in 20 Bulldogs points. The Bulldogs' 90 points came on 33-65 shooting, while the Rebels' 78 points came on 28-68 shooting. The Rebels' 21 points from AJ Storr marked his 10th game this season with 20 or more points.
The CHD Scout prediction model incorrectly picked the Rebels to win by 8.4 points, with a predicted score of 80-71. However, the actual result was a 12-point Bulldogs victory, exposing a significant discrepancy between the predicted and actual outcomes. This miss highlights the challenges of predicting college basketball games, especially when dealing with teams that have inconsistent performances. The model's error can be attributed to underestimating the Bulldogs' offense, which scored 19 points above their season average. The Rebels' 78 points were 4 points below their season average, further emphasizing the model's mistake.
This upset victory has real consequences for both teams' resumes. For the Bulldogs, the win improves their Quad 2 record to 3-6, while the Rebels' Quad 3 loss drops their record to 2-5 in such games. The Bulldogs' NET ranking is expected to rise from 102, potentially entering the top 90. In contrast, the Rebels' NET ranking of 84 may take a hit, potentially falling outside the top 90. This game's outcome will have a lasting impact on both teams' tournament chances, as the selection committee closely examines Quad 2 and Quad 3 performance. The Bulldogs' win also marked their 4th road victory of the season, a notable achievement given their 5-8 road record last season.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs want to build on this momentum in their next game, while the Mississippi Rebels will aim to bounce back from this upset loss. The Bulldogs' next game is scheduled for February 17th against the Alabama Crimson Tide, while the Rebels will face the Arkansas Razorbacks on February 18th. Both teams must regroup and refocus for their upcoming conference matchups, as the Bulldogs seek to climb the standings and the Rebels try to regain their footing.