As we dive into the final stretch of the regular season, the margin for error is dwindling for teams teetering on the NCAA Tournament bubble. For Missouri, a road trip to Coleman Coliseum represents a golden opportunity to bolster their resume and bolster their case for a spot in the Big Dance. With a NET ranking of 68, the Tigers find themselves squarely on the bubble, and a Quad 1 win over a top-25 team like Alabama would be a significant boost. On the other hand, the Crimson Tide, projected as a top-4 seed, are looking to solidify their position and avoid a damaging loss to a lower-ranked opponent.
The numbers suggest Alabama has the upper hand, with a 67% win probability according to the CHD Scout prediction, which forecasts a 4.7-point victory for the home team. The Tide's impressive Quad 1 record, combined with their strong NET ranking of 22, makes them a formidable opponent. However, Missouri's recent form has been inconsistent, with a win-loss-loss record in their last three outings, which may give Alabama an opening to exploit. Unfortunately, neither team has a player riding a hot streak, which could lead to a more evenly matched contest.
CHD Scout Prediction
Missouri
81
Alabama
85
The stakes are clear: a Missouri win would not only enhance their tournament prospects but also deal a blow to Alabama's chances of securing a top seed. Conversely, an Alabama victory would maintain their grip on a top-4 seed and potentially push Missouri further down the bubble. The Vegas odds reflect Alabama's favoritism, with the Tide giving 10.5 points and boasting a -700 moneyline. However, the over/under of 164.5 points hints at a potentially high-scoring affair, which could play into Missouri's hands if they can find a way to slow down Alabama's potent offense.
In the end, I predict Alabama will emerge victorious, albeit by a narrower margin than the predicted 4.7 points. The Crimson Tide's home-court advantage and superior NET ranking will ultimately prove too much for the Tigers to overcome. Expect a hard-fought, intense contest, but Alabama's depth and talent should secure an 82-78 win, keeping their top-seed aspirations intact while leaving Missouri to regroup and refocus their bubble-busting efforts.