Florida International edged Missouri State 70-67 in a closely contested game at the Ocean Bank Convocation Center. The Panthers' narrow three-point victory marked a reversal of fortune, considering the Bears led by as many as 8 points in the second half before ultimately falling short. Florida International's first-half surge, which saw them take a 29-22 lead, set the tone for a game that would come down to the wire.
The margin between the teams' NET rankings - Florida International at #194 and Missouri State at #215 - belies the competitiveness of the contest. The Panthers' 41-45 second-half scoring differential was matched by the Bears' 45-41 tally, highlighting the evenly matched nature of the game. Florida International ultimately capitalized on the Bears' late-game struggles to secure a hard-fought victory.
Julian Mackey's 22-point performance was a driving force behind Florida International's victory. He shot efficiently from the field, converting 8 of his 16 attempts, and showed a reliable three-point stroke, making 2 of his 7 attempts from beyond the arc. Mackey also displayed a strong ability to finish at the rim, with his 4-for-6 mark from the free throw line serving as a testament to his clutch shooting. His lone block on the night also made an impact on the glass, limiting Missouri State's opportunities in the paint.
Corey Stephenson and Hamed Olayinka provided critical support to Mackey's efforts. Stephenson chipped in 17 points, grabbing 6 rebounds in the process, and showed a well-rounded game with 1 assist. Olayinka, meanwhile, contributed 13 points and a team-high 8 rebounds, also blocking 2 shots to help stifle Missouri State's offense. His 5-for-7 mark from the field and 3-for-4 performance from the free throw line further highlighted his all-around skill set.
Kobi Williams, the Bears' top scorer, struggled to get his teammates involved, finishing with just one assist despite a season-high 25 points. His 4-10 performance from beyond the arc was a mixed bag, with some clutch shots offset by a few ill-advised attempts. Despite his scoring outburst, Williams' overall efficiency was a concern, as he converted just 55% of his two-point attempts.
Trey Williams Jr. showed flashes of brilliance from deep, knocking down three three-pointers, but his overall output was limited by his 1-2 performance from the field on two-point attempts. His three assists were a bright spot, but ultimately not enough to overcome his scoring struggles. Zaxton King, meanwhile, was held in check by the Panthers' defense, failing to capitalize on his 3-5 shooting from the field.
Notably, Keith Palek III and Michael Osei-Bonsu both struggled to meet their season averages, with Palek III's scoring output plummeting by 9.3 points per game, a stark departure from his usual prolific performance. Osei-Bonsu, on the other hand, saw his rebounding numbers surge by 4.8 boards per game, a significant anomaly from his typical contribution.
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Final
While the final margin was narrower than anticipated, the pre-game prediction of a 3.4-point Florida International victory ultimately held true, as the Panthers edged the Bears by three points. However, the game's outcome was a testament to the resilience of Missouri State, which pushed the Panthers to their limits before ultimately falling short.
The decisive factors in this game were Florida International's ability to shoot efficiently from the field, despite a notable dip from their season average three-point percentage, and Missouri State's struggles on the glass, particularly in comparison to their own season average. The Bears' 24.1% OREB rate was a significant drop from their usual mark, allowing the Panthers to maintain possession and capitalize on their own scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, Florida International's 50.9% effective field goal percentage, though down from their season average, was still a telling indicator of their ability to adapt and make key shots when it mattered most.
This result has significant implications for both teams' NCAA Tournament resumes. Florida International's win in a Quad 4 game adds a much-needed victory to their resume, but it does little to improve their NET ranking, which remains at #194. More importantly, it still has zero wins against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents, making it a long shot to receive an at-large bid. However, a Quad 4 win might be enough to secure a low seed in the tournament if they can maintain their current NET ranking. On the other hand, Missouri State's loss in a Quad 3 game, combined with their 0-1 record against Quad 1 opponents, has put their NCAA Tournament hopes in jeopardy. Their NET ranking of #215 and lack of quality wins make them a likely candidate for the NIT, but they still have a small chance to secure a low seed with a strong finish to the season. It's hard to see Missouri State avoiding a first-round exit if they make the tournament.