As we hit the midpoint of the college basketball season, the stakes are rising for teams hovering around the tournament bubble. One such matchup takes place tonight at the Pan American Center, where a non-conference clash between two Conference USA foes could have real consequences for their postseason aspirations. With both teams boasting similar records, this game is essentially a toss-up – but the CHD Scout prediction favors New Mexico State by 9.0 points, with a 79.4% win probability.
New Mexico State, currently sitting at 127 in the NET rankings, is desperate for quality wins to bolster their tournament resume. Their quad record tells the story of a team that has struggled against top-tier opposition, with a 1-2 mark in Quad 2 games and a 2-4 record in Quad 3 contests. However, they've been solid at home, which could give them an edge against a Missouri State team that's still searching for its first Quad 1 or Quad 2 win. The Aggies' recent form has been a mixed bag, with a win sandwiched between two losses, but they'll look to capitalize on their home-court advantage to get back on track.
Missouri State, on the other hand, is in a similar boat, with a 207 NET ranking and a quad record that's light on quality wins. Their recent form has been poor, with two consecutive losses before a much-needed win in their last outing. The Bears want to pull off a significant upset on the road, which would not only boost their tournament chances but also give them a much-needed Quad 2 win. Unfortunately for Missouri State, they'll have to do it without any discernible player momentum, as neither team has a player riding a hot streak.
CHD Scout Prediction
Missouri State
69
New Mexico State
78
Given the CHD Scout prediction and New Mexico State's home-court advantage, it's difficult to envision a scenario where the Aggies don't come out on top. The Vegas odds agree, with New Mexico State favored by 5.5 points and the over/under set at 143.5. In the end, I predict New Mexico State will emerge victorious, 78-69, thanks to their superior home record and the desperation that comes with needing a quality win to stay in the tournament conversation. The Aggies' ability to capitalize on their home-court advantage and exploit Missouri State's struggles against decent opposition should be enough to secure a crucial win and keep their NCAA hopes alive.