The Missouri State Bears will face off against the Sam Houston State Bearkats at Bernard G. Johnson Coliseum on February 28, a matchup that pits two teams with identical aspirations: claiming the Conference USA tournament auto-bid. With both teams firmly out of at-large contention, this game serves as a crucial step towards that goal, particularly for the visiting Bears, who are seeking to halt a five-game skid. Missouri State, or MSU, will need to draw upon their strengths to counter the formidable host, Sam Houston.
As the favored Sam Houston, or SHSU, looks to build momentum ahead of the conference tournament, they will need to be wary of complacency. Despite their superior form, having gone 4-1 in their last five outings, including an 82-78 win over Jacksonville State, SHSU is not invincible. For MSU to pull off the upset, they will need to capitalize on any vulnerabilities they can exploit, potentially in the form of strong defensive play or opportunistic scoring. Meanwhile, SHSU still has much to prove, particularly in terms of their ability to maintain focus and discipline against a determined, albeit struggling, opponent.
Averaging 17.3 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, complemented by his 6.4 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. With his 45% three-point shooting, Keith Palek III's versatility has been crucial for Missouri State. The team's recent form, however, has been concerning, with losses in their last five games, including a 67-70 defeat at Florida International and an 87-91 loss versus Kennesaw State. His teammates, including , who is scoring 15.0 points per game, and , with 14.8 points and 7.2 rebounds per game, have struggled to secure wins alongside Keith Palek III.
The team's record of 13-14 overall and 7-9 in Conference USA reflects their inconsistent performance, with a notable 0-1 record in Quad 1 games and 0-2 in Quad 2 games. In their last five games, Missouri State has fallen short, including losses to Delaware and Louisiana Tech. Despite this, Michael Osei-Bonsu's 2.2 assists per game and 's 2.7 assists per game have been vital in creating scoring opportunities, while 's 7.4 points per game have provided a spark off the bench. With Keith Palek III, Kobi Williams, and Michael Osei-Bonsu leading the charge, Missouri State will look to break their losing streak against Sam Houston.
Averaging 11.0 points per game, and have been crucial to Sam Houston's offense, with the latter also contributing 7.1 rebounds per game. His 2.3 assists per game have also been vital in facilitating the team's scoring opportunities, often setting up scoring chances for , who has been the team's most consistent scorer. The team's leading scorer, with Po'Boigh King's 14.7 points per game, has helped propel Sam Houston to a 19-8 record, including an 11-5 mark in Conference USA play.
With three consecutive wins, including an 82-78 victory over Jacksonville State and a 78-70 win over Middle Tennessee, Sam Houston has regained momentum after a loss to Louisiana Tech. His 45% three-point shooting has been a key factor in the team's success, but it is not a stat attributed to any of the mentioned players. Instead, Justin Begg's 3.5 assists per game have helped to distribute the ball effectively, while Isaiah Manning's 9.6 points per game have provided a spark off the bench, supporting the team's core of Veljko Ilic, Kashie Natt, and Po'Boigh King.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Missouri State's Michael Osei-Bonsu and Sam Houston's Kashie Natt will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Osei-Bonsu's ability to score, rebound, and facilitate for his teammates makes him a versatile threat, while Natt's well-rounded stat line suggests he is capable of matching Osei-Bonsu's production. The battle between these two players will likely decide which team can establish a consistent interior presence and control the tempo of the game.
Osei-Bonsu's 7.2 rebounds per game give him a slight edge on the glass, but Natt's 2.3 assists per game indicate he may be able to exploit Missouri State's defense with his passing ability. If Osei-Bonsu can outmuscle Natt in the paint and limit his scoring opportunities, Missouri State may be able to gain a significant advantage. Conversely, if Natt can use his agility and court vision to outmaneuver Osei-Bonsu, Sam Houston may be able to dictate the terms of the game and come out on top.
CHD Scout Prediction
Missouri State
71
Sam Houston
81
The model's prediction of a Sam Houston victory, 81-71, with a 79.7% win probability, aligns with my own assessment of the game. I agree with the model's forecast, as the significant disparity in NET rankings between the two teams suggests a considerable gap in their overall strength. Specifically, Sam Houston's substantially higher NET ranking of #102 compared to Missouri State's #219 indicates a notable difference in the quality of their respective schedules and performances, which I believe will ultimately give Sam Houston the edge they need to secure a win.
Tournament Stakes
As the season enters its final stretch, both Missouri State and Sam Houston are jockeying for position in the Conference USA standings, with the conference tournament auto-bid serving as their sole path to the NCAA Tournament. A win for Sam Houston would bolster their chances of securing a higher seed in the conference tournament, potentially setting them up for a more favorable matchup in the early rounds. Conversely, a Missouri State victory would be a significant upset, allowing them to gain ground on the conference leaders and build momentum heading into the postseason. With Sam Houston facing a Quad 4 opponent and Missouri State facing a Quad 2 test, the Bearkats' superior NET ranking and overall record suggest they should emerge victorious, but the fact that they are being pushed to prove themselves against a sub-.500 team is a damning indictment of their own postseason prospects.