As the college basketball season hurtles towards its climax, the margin for error is shrinking for teams on the bubble. In the Big Sky, two teams still harboring tournament aspirations are set to collide in a Quad 4 matchup that could have real consequences for their respective resumes. The J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome will play host to a high-stakes showdown, where the home team is desperate to snap a three-game losing streak and inject some life into their ailing campaign.
Northern Arizona, with a dismal 0-7 conference record and a NET ranking of 320, is in dire need of quality wins to bolster their tournament chances. However, their quad record paints a bleak picture, with a 0-1 mark in Q1, 0-3 in Q2, and 0-5 in Q3. Their opponent, meanwhile, has fared slightly better, with a 10-9 overall record and a 4-2 mark in conference play. Montana's NET ranking of 175 is a reflection of their more competitive schedule, but they still require quality wins to solidify their position on the bubble.
CHD Scout Prediction
Montana
79
Northern Arizona
73
According to the CHD Scout prediction, Montana is favored to win by 6.0 points, with Northern Arizona given a 29% chance of pulling off the upset. The odds makers agree, with Montana listed as 4.5-point road favorites. The over/under is set at 145.5, indicating a potentially high-scoring affair. With neither team boasting a standout player on a hot streak, this one may come down to which team can impose their will on the defensive end.
Given the desperation that will be palpable in the Skydome, this game has all the makings of a thrilling, back-and-forth affair. However, when the dust settles, I predict Montana will emerge victorious, 79-73. Their slightly better quad record and more respectable NET ranking suggest they have the edge in terms of overall quality, and I expect them to capitalize on Northern Arizona's recent struggles. The Lumberjacks will undoubtedly give it their all, but ultimately, Montana's superior talent and more consistent form should prove too much to overcome.