The Dee Events Center witnessed a stunning upset as the Weber State Wildcats, ranked 203 in the NET rankings, took down the Montana State University-Bozeman Bobcats, ranked 136, by a margin of 3 points, 82-79. This outcome defies the CHD Scout prediction, which had Montana State winning by 3.6 points. The Wildcats' victory can be attributed to their ability to capitalize on Montana State's mistakes, as they scored 15 points off turnovers, compared to Montana State's 10. Trevor Hennig led the charge for Weber State, scoring 19 points and grabbing 7 rebounds, while Nigel Burris chipped in with 15 points and 7 rebounds of his own. Montana State's Patrick McMahon top-scored with 17 points, but it wasn't enough to overcome the Wildcats' balanced attack, which saw three players score in double figures.
Weber State's recent form had been a mixed bag, with a 2-3 record in their last 5 games, averaging 77 points per game while allowing 80.2 points per game. However, they managed to buck this trend against Montana State, outscoring them 39-38 in the second half. Montana State, on the other hand, had been averaging 72 points per game over their last 5 games, while allowing 71 points per game, but their usually stingy defense was breached by the Wildcats' offense, which shot 45.5% from the field. The Bobcats' Jed Miller had a strong all-around game, scoring 16 points, grabbing 8 rebounds, and dishing out 5 assists, but it wasn't enough to propel his team to victory. With 12:45 left in the game, Montana State led by 5 points, but Weber State went on a 10-2 run, capped off by a Hennig layup, to take the lead and never look back.
The star performers for both teams made significant contributions to the outcome of the game. Trevor Hennig's 19 points and 7 rebounds were crucial for Weber State, as he hit several big shots late, including a 3-pointer with 2:15 left to put the Wildcats up by 4. Nigel Burris and Tijan Saine Jr. also made key plays, with Burris scoring 7 of his 15 points in the second half, and Saine Jr. dishing out 5 assists, including a crucial one to Hennig for a layup with 1:15 left. For Montana State, Patrick McMahon's 17 points and Jeremiah Davis's 17 points were notable, but they were unable to overcome the Wildcats' defense, which held them to 38.5% shooting from the field in the second half. Jed Miller's 16 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists were a bright spot for the Bobcats, but his 4 turnovers, including one with 30 seconds left, proved costly.
The CHD Scout prediction had Montana State winning by 3.6 points, but this outcome was far from certain. The model likely underestimated the impact of Weber State's home-court advantage, as well as their ability to adapt to Montana State's defensive strategy. The Wildcats' 7-for-20 shooting from beyond the arc was a key factor, as it stretched the Montana State defense and created opportunities for driving lanes and open shots. Additionally, the model may have overestimated Montana State's ability to contain Weber State's offense, which had been averaging 77 points per game over their last 5 games.
CHD Scout Report Card
INCORRECTPredicted
Final
The discrepancy between the predicted and actual scores can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the model may have placed too much emphasis on Montana State's recent form, which had seen them average 72 points per game over their last 5 games. However, the Wildcats' defense, which had been allowing 80.2 points per game over their last 5 games, was able to hold the Bobcats to 79 points, despite giving up 29 points in the first half. Secondly, the model may have underestimated the impact of Weber State's home-court advantage, which has seen them win 2 of their last 3 games at the Dee Events Center. The energetic crowd and familiar surroundings seemed to give the Wildcats an extra boost, as they outscored Montana State 15-12 in overtime.
As the game wore on, it became clear that this was going to be a closely contested affair. With 5:15 left in the game, Montana State led by 2 points, but Weber State went on a 7-2 run, capped off by a Burris layup, to take the lead. The Bobcats were unable to recover, despite a late 3-pointer by Davis, which cut the deficit to 1 point with 1:45 left. The Wildcats' ability to close out the game was impressive, as they made 5 of their last 6 free throws to seal the win. This victory marks a significant turn for Weber State, as they improve to 14-14, while Montana State falls to 15-12. The 3-point shooting of both teams played a crucial role, as Weber State shot 7-for-20 from beyond the arc, compared to Montana State's 6-for-22.
The implications of this upset are significant, particularly for Weber State. The Wildcats' win over Montana State, a Quadrant 3 opponent, improves their NET ranking to 203 and gives them a much-needed boost in their tournament resume. While they are still a long shot to make the tournament, this win keeps them in the conversation, particularly if they can build on this momentum and win a few more games late. For Montana State, the loss is a setback, but they still have a strong chance of making the tournament, particularly if they can win a few more games against Quadrant 1 and 2 opponents. The Bobcats' current NET ranking of 136 is still respectable, and they have a few more opportunities to improve their resume before the end of the season. With 7 games left to play, both teams want to make a push for the tournament, and this game will be a crucial factor in determining their seeding.