As the college basketball season heats up, Niagara finds itself in desperate need of quality wins to bolster its tournament resume, currently hindered by a lackluster 0-2 record in Quad 1 games and 0-4 mark in Quad 3 contests. The Purple Eagles' NET ranking of 351 underscores the urgency of their situation. Mount St. Mary's, meanwhile, is also seeking to enhance its postseason prospects, boasting a slightly better NET ranking of 298 but still requiring significant victories to make a lasting impression on the selection committee.
The CHD Scout prediction gives Niagara a narrow 1-point edge, with a 53.7% win probability, suggesting a closely contested affair at the Gallagher Center. Both teams have struggled to find consistency, as evidenced by their recent form: Niagara has gone W-L-L, while Mount St. Mary's has alternated wins and losses in its last three outings. Unfortunately, neither team has a player riding a notable hot streak, which could lead to a more evenly matched and unpredictable contest.
CHD Scout Prediction
Mount St. Mary's
69
Niagara
70
Given the Quad 4 designation of this matchup, neither team will gain significant traction in the tournament conversation with a win. However, a loss would be particularly damaging for Niagara, which cannot afford to drop more games against comparable opponents. Mount St. Mary's, on the other hand, would benefit from a road victory, which would help offset its poor showings in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games.
Tournament Stakes
I predict Niagara will squeak out a 1-point victory, 70-69, over Mount St. Mary's, leveraging its home-court advantage to secure a much-needed win and temporarily boost its tournament prospects. The Purple Eagles' slim favored status, combined with the CHD Scout prediction, suggests they have a narrow edge in what promises to be a hard-fought, low-margin contest.