The Illinois State Redbirds are set to host the Murray State Racers in a crucial non-conference matchup, with both teams looking to bolster their tournament resumes. Over their last five games, Illinois State has averaged 71.6 points per game, while allowing 73 points per game, resulting in a 2-3 record during that stretch. This trend of being outscored by 1.4 points per game is a concern for the Redbirds, especially considering their recent 50-54 loss to Southern Illinois, where they struggled to find their rhythm on offense. In contrast, Murray State has averaged 75.2 points per game over their last five, but has also allowed 80.6 points per game, resulting in a 3-2 record. Their ability to score has been a strength, as evidenced by their 91-81 win over Southern Illinois, but their defensive struggles have been a major weakness.
As we delve into the individual player performances, it's essential to consider the matchup context and recent hot streaks.
Murray State's Struggles Against Quad 1 Opponents
Key Matchups
Murray State's leading scorer has been on a tear lately, averaging 22.5 points per game over the last three games, including a 28-point outing against UIC. However, Illinois State's defense has been stout against opposing teams' top scorers, holding them to 38% shooting from the field. On the other hand, Illinois State's point guard has been struggling with turnovers, averaging 3.8 per game over the last five, which could be exploited by Murray State's aggressive defense. The Racers have been forcing an average of 14.5 turnovers per game over their last five, which could be a significant factor in this matchup. Additionally, Illinois State's power forward has been dominant on the glass, averaging 9.5 rebounds per game over the last five, which could give the Redbirds an edge in the paint.
The trends in recent games suggest that Illinois State's offense has been inconsistent, scoring 86 points or more in two of their last five games, but being held to 56 and 50 points in two of their losses. Murray State's defense has been porous, allowing 80 points or more in four of their last five games, including a 89-point outing by Northern Iowa. However, the Racers have shown the ability to score in bunches, with three games of 80 points or more over their last five. Illinois State's defense has been solid, holding opponents to 64 points or less in two of their last five games, but they have also allowed 83 and 88 points in two of their losses. The Redbirds have been outscored by 1.4 points per game over their last five, which is a concern, but they have also shown the ability to bounce back from losses, winning two of their last three games after a loss.
The prediction for this game has Illinois State winning by 8.6 points, with a 76.9% win probability.
CHD Scout Prediction
Murray State
73
Illinois State
81
This is largely due to the Redbirds' strong home record, where they have averaged 78.5 points per game and allowed just 69.2 points per game. Additionally, Illinois State's offense has been more efficient at home, shooting 48.5% from the field and 38.5% from three-point range. Murray State, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, averaging just 72.2 points per game and allowing 79.5 points per game. The Racers have also turned the ball over more frequently on the road, averaging 14.5 turnovers per game, which could be exploited by Illinois State's defense.
The tournament stakes are high for both teams, with a win potentially bolstering their resume and a loss potentially damaging their chances.
Tournament Stakes
A win for Illinois State would give them a much-needed quality win, especially considering their struggles against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents. The Redbirds have gone 0-3 against Quad 1 opponents and 2-1 against Quad 2 opponents, so a win over Murray State, a Quad 2 opponent, would be a significant boost to their resume. On the other hand, a loss would drop Illinois State to 17-11 and put them in a precarious position in terms of their tournament chances. For Murray State, a win would give them a crucial road victory and potentially move them up in the NET rankings. The Racers have gone 0-2 against Quad 1 opponents and 4-3 against Quad 2 opponents, so a win over Illinois State would be a significant step forward. A loss, however, would drop Murray State to 19-10 and put them in a difficult position in terms of their tournament chances.
In terms of recent form, both teams have been inconsistent, with Illinois State going 2-3 over their last five games and Murray State going 3-2. However, the Redbirds have shown the ability to bounce back from losses, winning two of their last three games after a loss. Murray State, on the other hand, has struggled to string together consecutive wins, with their last two wins being separated by a loss. The Racers have also been inconsistent on the road, going 4-5 in their last nine games away from home. Illinois State, on the other hand, has been strong at home, going 11-3 in their last 14 games at CEFCU Arena. The Redbirds have averaged 78.5 points per game at home, while allowing just 69.2 points per game, which could give them an edge in this matchup.
HEADLINE: Illinois State Redbirds vs Murray State Racers: A Crucial Non-Conference Matchup SUBHEADLINE: Illinois State looks to bounce back from a 50-54 loss to Southern Illinois, while Murray State aims to build on their 81-74 win over UIC, with the Redbirds averaging 71.6 points per game over their last five.