In a stunning upset, the University of New Haven (New Haven) handed the University of Fairleigh Dickinson (FDU) a 7-point defeat, winning 84-77. The Knights, ranked 327th in the NET, outlasted the Knights, who are ranked 323rd, at the Bogota Savings Bank Center. New Haven's strong first half set the tone, leading 55-39 before holding off a second-half surge from FDU.
New Haven's victory marked a rare upset in the Northeast Conference, as the lower-ranked team emerged victorious. The final score of 84-77 reflected the intensity of the contest, with neither team able to pull away until the final minutes. New Haven's win snapped a two-game losing streak and improved their NET ranking, while FDU's loss dropped them to 1-5 in their last six games.
Jabri Fitzpatrick spearheaded New Haven's offense, notching a game-high 32 points on 11-for-17 shooting from the field and a perfect 4-for-4 from beyond the arc. He also contributed to the team's rebounding effort with 5 boards, while dishing out 4 assists. Fitzpatrick's efficiency from the free throw line, converting 6 of 9 attempts, was also a key factor in his overall performance. His well-rounded stat line was a testament to his all-around skillset.
Kheni Briggs provided a significant scoring punch off the bench, scoring 18 points on 7-for-11 shooting from the field, including 4 of 7 from three-point range. However, his lack of contributions on the glass and in terms of playmaking was notable, as he failed to record a rebound or assist in the contest. Despite this, his ability to stretch the defense with his outside shooting was a valuable asset for New Haven. Meanwhile, Andre Pasha chipped in with a solid 16-point, 6-rebound effort, but his limited playmaking impact and 1 assist were the only blemishes on an otherwise solid performance.
Joey Niesman's 24-point effort was a bright spot for Fairleigh Dickinson, but ultimately fell short of what was needed to secure a win. While his shooting percentages were respectable, his team's inability to contain New Haven's offense limited his impact on the game. Niesman's 10-18 shooting from the field and 3-9 three-point shooting were not enough to propel his team to victory.
Cyril Martynov and Eric Parnell struggled to find their footing against New Haven's defense, with Martynov managing only 14 points and Parnell scoring 10. Martynov's 6-7 shooting from the field was impressive, but his team's inability to support him on offense made it difficult for him to make a significant impact. Parnell's shooting percentages were also respectable, but his 2-4 three-point shooting was not enough to make a difference in the game.
The remaining players on both rosters largely stayed within their established season averages.
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Final
The pre-game prediction of a 3.5-point Fairleigh Dickinson victory fell short by a significant margin, as New Haven claimed a 7-point win. The disparity between the actual result and the model's projection highlights the unpredictability of college basketball, where even the slightest adjustments can alter the trajectory of a game. In this instance, the model failed to account for New Haven's surging shooting efficiency and three-point prowess, which proved to be a decisive factor in the outcome.
Upon closer examination, it becomes clear that New Haven's dominance on offense was fueled by their exceptional shooting, particularly from beyond the arc, where they converted at a staggering 60.9% clip. This was a stark contrast to Fairleigh Dickinson's 36.4% three-point shooting, which was well below their season average. Additionally, New Haven's high effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 78.7% suggests that they were able to capitalize on scoring opportunities, while Fairleigh Dickinson struggled to contain their opponents' offense. These two factors – New Haven's elite shooting and Fairleigh Dickinson's defensive vulnerability – ultimately sealed the outcome in favor of the Bulldogs.
This outcome has significant implications for each team's NCAA Tournament resume. For New Haven, the win against a Quad 4 opponent will not significantly enhance their NET ranking, but it does give them a much-needed boost in terms of overall wins, now standing at 13-15. However, with no Quad 1 or 2 victories, their chances of receiving a seed in the NCAA Tournament remain slim, likely relegating them to a First Four game. Fairleigh Dickinson, on the other hand, will likely face a longer road to the NCAA Tournament, as their loss against a Quad 4 opponent and their overall record of 11-18, combined with a NET ranking of #323, will make it challenging for them to crack the field, let alone secure a higher seed.