The Grand Canyon Antelopes are looking to capitalize on their recent form, having gone 2-1 in their last three games, including a win over a conference opponent, to improve their 8-4 conference record. With a 2-4 record in Quad 1 games and 3-1 in Quad 2, this matchup against New Mexico, which would be considered a Quad 1 game for Grand Canyon, is vital for bolstering their tournament resume. New Mexico, on the other hand, is solidly in the tournament field but seeks to enhance their seeding with quality road wins, having gone 5-1 in Quad 2 games and 1-4 in Quad 1.
New Mexico Lobos Have Struggled in Quad 1 Games with a 1-4 Record
The game is scheduled for February 11, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET, and will take place at the Global Credit Union Arena. It will be broadcast on ESPN+, providing a national platform for both teams to make a statement. The over/under is set at 150.5 points, with New Mexico favored by 1.5 points according to BetMGM, indicating a closely contested matchup.
The New Mexico Lobos have had a strong season, with an 18-6 overall record and a 9-4 conference record, placing them near the top of their conference standings. Their NET ranking of 45 is a reflection of their consistency, with notable wins in Quad 2 games. However, their Quad 1 record of 1-4 is a concern, as they look to improve their tournament seeding. New Mexico's recent form shows a bit of a slump, with losses in two of their last three games, but they are looking to bounce back against Grand Canyon.
Key Matchups
The Grand Canyon Antelopes have compiled a 15-8 overall record, with an 8-4 record in conference play, positioning them well in their league. Their NET ranking of 70 indicates they are on the bubble, needing significant wins to secure a tournament spot. Grand Canyon's quad record, particularly their 2-4 mark in Quad 1 games, highlights the importance of this matchup. With a recent form of 2-1 in their last three games, including a win, Grand Canyon is looking to ride this momentum to a crucial victory over New Mexico.
The matchup between New Mexico and Grand Canyon will be decided by which team can impose its style of play. New Mexico averages 78.5 points per game, while Grand Canyon averages 74.2 points per game, indicating a potentially high-scoring affair given the over/under of 150.5. The pace of the game matters, with New Mexico preferring a faster pace, averaging 72.1 possessions per game, compared to Grand Canyon's 69.5 possessions per game. Grand Canyon's defense, which allows 67.8 points per game, will be tested by New Mexico's offense, which shoots 46.2% from the field.
CHD Scout Prediction
New Mexico
73
Grand Canyon
75
For New Mexico, players like Jamal Mashburn Jr., who averages 18.5 points per game, and Jaelen House, with 17.1 points per game, matters in this matchup. Both have been consistent scorers for the Lobos and must perform well against Grand Canyon's defense. On the other side, Grand Canyon will rely on players like Ray Harrison, who averages 14.2 points per game, and Chance McMillian, with 12.8 points per game. These players must step up their game to secure a win for the Antelopes.
Tournament Stakes
The CHD Scout prediction favors Grand Canyon by 1.9 points, with a 56.5% win probability for the Antelopes. This prediction suggests a closely contested game, with Grand Canyon's home advantage potentially being the deciding factor. Given the margin and probability, this game is expected to be highly competitive, with both teams having a legitimate chance of winning.
This game has significant tournament implications for both teams. For Grand Canyon, a win would be a much-needed Quad 1 victory, improving their record to 3-4 in such games and bolstering their NET ranking. It would also enhance their chances of securing a tournament bid. For New Mexico, while they are solidly in the tournament field, a road win against a bubble team like Grand Canyon would strengthen their resume and potentially improve their seeding. A loss, however, could slightly diminish their tournament standing, particularly if it drops their Quad 1 record to 1-5.