The University of New Mexico Lobos and the University of Nevada Wolf Pack are set to face off in a crucial Mountain West matchup on February 24 at the Lawlor Events Center. With New Mexico sitting at 12-4 in conference play and Nevada at 10-6, the implications for the conference race are significant. A win for New Mexico would help solidify their position near the top of the standings, while a Nevada victory would keep them in the mix for a higher seed in the conference tournament. As the season enters its final stretch, the margins between these evenly matched teams are small, and the outcome of this game could have a significant impact on their postseason trajectories.
The Lawlor Events Center will be the backdrop for this pivotal matchup, with New Mexico looking to build on their recent 80-78 win over Fresno State and Nevada seeking to capitalize on their 80-77 victory over Utah State. The Lobos, currently on the NCAA Tournament bubble, will be looking to make a statement and bolster their case for a potential at-large bid. Meanwhile, Nevada, with their only path to the tournament being a conference tournament title, will be fighting to keep their season alive and gain momentum heading into the postseason. With the model predicting a close 77-72 New Mexico win, this game has all the makings of a tightly contested, high-stakes affair that will be closely watched by fans and analysts alike.
Averaging 18.3 points per game is not a statistic attributed to any single player on the New Mexico roster, but the team's leading scorer, , is putting up 15.7 points per game. His 3.3 rebounds per game and 1.5 assists per game are complemented by the efforts of , whose 9.8 rebounds per game lead the team. With a record of 21-6, including 12-4 in the Mountain West conference, New Mexico has demonstrated resilience, as seen in their recent 80-78 win at Fresno State. The team's overall performance has been bolstered by 's 11.8 points per game, 3.9 rebounds per game, and 3.1 assists per game.
His 45% three-point shooting is not a statistic available for any player, but 's 10.6 points per game and 2.3 assists per game have been crucial in New Mexico's recent successes, including a 98-61 victory over Air Force. The team's ability to bounce back from losses, such as the 90-91 defeat to Boise State, has been notable, with 's 9.0 points per game and 3.0 rebounds per game providing a consistent presence. As New Mexico heads into the game against Nevada, the team will rely on the collective efforts of Jake Hall, Tomislav Buljan, Deyton Albury, Uriah Tenette, and Antonio Chol to maintain their strong season, which includes a 2-4 record against Quad 1 opponents and a 7-1 record against Quad 2 opponents.
Averaging 17.7 points per game, has been the driving force behind Nevada's offense, which will look to bounce back from a pair of losses in their last three games, including a 71-87 defeat at San José State and a 57-71 loss at San Diego State. The team's leading scorer, Corey Camper Jr., will need to be at the top of his game, as his 4.3 rebounds per game are also crucial in supporting , who is hauling in 8.9 rebounds per contest. His 45% three-point shooting has been a significant factor in the team's success, particularly in their wins, such as the 80-77 victory over Utah State.
With contributing 12.4 points and 3.8 assists per game, Nevada's backcourt has been a strength, while and provide depth off the bench, with Vaughn Weems averaging 7.8 points and 3.6 rebounds per game, and Chuck Bailey III adding 6.8 points and 2.7 rebounds per contest. As the team prepares to face New Mexico, Tayshawn Comer's ability to create for himself and others will be key, and Elijah Price's presence in the paint will be crucial in matching up against a strong opponent, following their recent 69-59 win over Fresno State, which showcased the team's resilience and ability to bounce back from tough losses, such as the 87-91 defeat at Boise State.
Key Matchups
The matchup between New Mexico's Tomislav Buljan and Nevada's Elijah Price will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. As the primary big men for their respective teams, their battle in the paint will have a significant impact on the game's tempo and scoring opportunities. Buljan's ability to outmuscle Price and secure rebounds will be crucial, given his significant advantage in rebounding average. If Buljan can assert his dominance on the glass, New Mexico will have a significant edge in terms of second-chance points and transition opportunities.
Price, however, is no slouch, and his scoring average suggests he is capable of keeping pace with Buljan. If Price can use his quickness to stay in front of Buljan and limit his scoring opportunities, Nevada may be able to neutralize New Mexico's interior threat and force them to rely on outside shooting. The outcome of this individual matchup will have far-reaching implications for the team's overall strategy and ultimately, the game's outcome.
CHD Scout Prediction
New Mexico
77
Nevada
72
Based on the available data, the model predicts a 77-72 New Mexico victory with a 66.1% win probability. I agree with this assessment, as New Mexico's superior overall record and higher NET ranking suggest a slight edge in terms of overall team strength. Specifically, New Mexico's significant advantage in terms of overall wins, with a 21-6 record compared to Nevada's 17-9, indicates a level of consistency and resilience that I believe will serve them well in this matchup, ultimately leading to a narrow victory for the visiting team.
Tournament Stakes
As the regular season enters its final stretch, this matchup carries significant postseason implications for both teams, albeit in different ways. For New Mexico, a win would bolster their at-large resume, particularly given the Quad 1 designation, and potentially improve their seeding prospects if they were to secure an NCAA Tournament bid. A loss, however, would dent their chances and add pressure to their remaining schedule. Conversely, Nevada's focus is solely on positioning themselves for a strong Mountain West conference tournament run, as their only path to the NCAA Tournament is through the auto-bid. With this game classified as Quad 2 for the hosts, a Nevada win would be a notable boost, but ultimately, their postseason fate remains tied to their conference tournament performance. The Lobos' ability to capitalize on this Quad 1 opportunity will be crucial in solidifying their tournament credentials, and a victory would be a significant step towards avoiding the dreaded 8-9 seed line, a precarious perch that often spells doom for even the most promising postseason aspirations.