The New Orleans Privateers will face off against the Stephen F. Austin State Lumberjacks on February 23 at the William R. Johnson Coliseum, a venue that has been particularly unforgiving for visiting teams this season. As the Privateers, or New Orleans, look to pull off a significant upset, they will need to draw upon their strengths, which have allowed them to remain competitive in the Southland Conference. Despite being heavy underdogs, New Orleans has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in their recent win over Lamar, and will look to build on this momentum.
The Lumberjacks, or SFA, enter this contest as clear favorites, boasting an impressive 18-1 record in conference play. However, despite their dominant form, SFA still has much to prove, particularly in terms of their ability to maintain focus and intensity against lesser opponents. With their sights set on the Southland Conference tournament, SFA will need to avoid complacency and ensure that they do not underestimate their opponents. For New Orleans to have any chance of pulling off the upset, they will need to capitalize on any potential vulnerabilities in SFA's game, while also delivering a near-flawless performance of their own.
Averaging 15.8 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his contributions crucial in recent wins. The team's record stands at 13-15 overall and 11-8 in the Southland Conference, indicating a mid-table position. His 2.9 rebounds per game, alongside 's 7.6 rebounds per game, have been vital in securing crucial boards. With a NET ranking of 210, the team faces an uphill battle in terms of national recognition.
In the last five games, the team has shown resilience, with wins over Lamar and Incarnate Word, where 's 5.2 assists per game played a significant role in dictating the tempo. 's 5.4 rebounds per game and 's 8.1 points per game have also been instrumental in these victories. The team's recent form, including a close loss to Houston Christian, suggests that they are capable of competing against a variety of opponents, with Coleton Benson and Jakevion Buckley often leading the charge.
With a 25-3 overall record and 18-1 mark in the Southland Conference, Stephen F. Austin has established itself as a formidable force in the league. Averaging 18.4 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, while his 5.1 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game demonstrate his versatility. The team's recent form has been impressive, with wins in their last five games, including an 81-78 victory over Nicholls and a 78-68 win at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. His 45% three-point shooting has been a key factor in the team's success, and with contributing 14.8 points per game, the team has a potent one-two punch on offense.
The team's balance has been a key factor in their success, with and providing additional scoring punch, averaging 9.9 and 8.4 points per game, respectively. has been a force on the glass, with his 6.9 rebounds per game leading the team, and his 1.8 assists per game demonstrate his ability to contribute in other areas. With their strong record and recent form, Stephen F. Austin will look to continue their winning ways against New Orleans, and with Keon Thompson and Lateef Patrick leading the charge, they have the talent and depth to make a strong push for a conference title.
Key Matchups
The matchup between New Orleans' MJ Thomas and Stephen F. Austin's Keon Thompson will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Thomas, a dominant force in the paint, will look to exploit his rebounding advantage against Thompson, who averages fewer boards. If Thomas can establish a strong presence on the glass, it could limit Stephen F. Austin's second-chance opportunities and give New Orleans a significant edge.
Thompson, however, is a highly skilled scorer who can potentially negate Thomas's rebounding advantage with his ability to create his own shot. If Thompson can draw Thomas away from the basket and force him to defend on the perimeter, it could neutralize New Orleans' rebounding advantage and create scoring opportunities for Stephen F. Austin. The battle between these two players will be a key factor in deciding which team emerges victorious.
CHD Scout Prediction
New Orleans
67
Stephen F. Austin
81
Based on the model's prediction, which favors Stephen F. Austin by a significant margin, 81-67, with an 87.9% win probability, I concur with this assessment. The primary reason for my agreement is the substantial disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with Stephen F. Austin holding a considerable advantage at #81 compared to New Orleans' #210 ranking, indicating a notable difference in overall team strength and performance throughout the season.
Tournament Stakes
As the season enters its final stretch, this matchup holds significant implications for both teams' conference tournament positioning. A win for Stephen F. Austin would bolster their chances of securing a top seed in the Southland Conference tournament, while a loss could create an opening for other teams to challenge their standing. For New Orleans, a victory would be a crucial upset, potentially propelling them up the conference standings and into a more favorable tournament bracket. Given the stark contrast in their overall records, a New Orleans win would also serve as a notable momentum boost, potentially altering the trajectory of their program in the short term. Ultimately, the outcome of this game will have a direct impact on the conference tournament landscape, and a New Orleans victory would be a resounding statement that they are more than just a long shot to claim the auto-bid, making them a dark horse to watch in the Southland Conference tournament.