As we dive into the heart of the season, the importance of quality wins cannot be overstated, especially for mid-major programs like Fairfield and Niagara. With both teams struggling to find consistency, this matchup takes on added significance, particularly for the host Stags. Fairfield, currently ranked 245 in the NET rankings, is in dire need of a boost to their tournament resume, having gone 0-1 against Quad 1 opponents and 0-1 against Quad 2 foes. Their quad record is a mixed bag, with a 10-3 mark in Quad 4 games, but it's the quality wins that will ultimately make or break their bubble hopes.
The CHD Scout prediction has Fairfield emerging victorious by 11.9 points, with an 85.6% win probability, and it's easy to see why. The Stags have been more competitive overall, with a slightly better record and a more impressive performance in their conference. Niagara, on the other hand, has struggled to find its footing, boasting a 354 NET ranking and a lackluster quad record. The Purple Eagles have gone 0-2 against Quad 1 opponents and 0-4 against Quad 3 foes, making this matchup a Quad 4 affair.
CHD Scout Prediction
Niagara
64
Fairfield
77
In terms of recent form, Fairfield is looking to build on their last win, having gone L-L-W in their previous three outings. Niagara, meanwhile, has been inconsistent, with a L-W-L record in their last three games. Unfortunately, there's no notable player momentum to speak of, so we'll have to rely on team trends to inform our prediction.
Given the CHD Scout prediction and the tournament context, it's likely that Fairfield will come out on top. The Stags have more to lose here, and their superior record and NET ranking suggest they should be able to take care of business at home. With an 85.6% win probability, it's hard to bet against Fairfield, especially considering their strong performance in Quad 4 games. I'm predicting a Fairfield win, 77-64, as they look to bolster their tournament resume and keep their bubble hopes alive. The Stags should be able to capitalize on their home-court advantage and secure a much-needed victory.