In a stunning upset, North Carolina A&T State, ranked 272nd in the NET rankings, defeated Elon, the 192nd-ranked team, by a margin of 20 points, 102-82. The Bulldogs' convincing victory was a major upset, considering the Phoenix were considered the favorites at home. The 20-point margin suggests a decisive performance from the lower-ranked North Carolina A&T State team.
The game's outcome was a testament to North Carolina A&T State's ability to execute on both ends of the court. The Bulldogs built a 12-point lead at halftime, 53-41, and expanded their advantage to 49-41 in the second half. The convincing win for North Carolina A&T State has significant implications for seeding in the upcoming tournament, as the Bulldogs move up the NET rankings.
Trent Middleton Jr. led the charge for North Carolina A&T, posting a well-rounded performance with 24 points, 7 rebounds, and a team-high 8 assists. He shot efficiently from the field, converting 10 of his 13 attempts, and added a respectable 3 of 5 from the free throw line. Middleton Jr.'s all-around skillset was on full display as he contributed to both the offense and defense.
Lewis Walker and Zamoku Weluche-Ume also had notable games, with Walker scoring 24 points and shooting a perfect 10 of 10 from the free throw line, while Weluche-Ume chipped in with 19 points and a team-high 10 rebounds. Walker's ability to knock down free throws at a high clip was a key factor in North Carolina A&T's blowout victory, while Weluche-Ume's rebounding prowess helped the team control the boards and dictate the tempo of the game.
Bryson Cokley's performance, though respectable, ultimately fell short of the mark. His 19 points on 7-15 shooting from the field and 4-9 from beyond the arc were not enough to sustain a Elon offense that struggled to keep pace with North Carolina A&T's high-scoring attack. Cokley's inability to contribute in other facets, such as assists, limited his overall impact on the game.
Chandler Cuthrell and Randall Pettus II were also hindered by the dominant performance of North Carolina A&T. Cuthrell's 18 points were buoyed by a strong showing from the free throw line, but his 5-14 shooting from the field and lack of three-point production limited his effectiveness. Pettus II's 14 points, meanwhile, came largely from three-point range, where he connected on 4-8 attempts. However, his struggles on the glass and inability to create for teammates elsewhere on the court made his contributions feel somewhat isolated.
Mujahiid Burton's breakout performance was a significant departure from his season averages, with a 211.3% increase in scoring, a marginal decrease in rebounding, and a 300% spike in assists. His 6-11 shooting from the field and 4-8 mark from beyond the arc showcased a newfound efficiency, as he made the most of his opportunities, but it remains to be seen if this level of production can be sustained.
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Final
The pre-game prediction of a 7.7-point Elon victory was wide off the mark, as North Carolina A&T secured a 20-point win. The disparity between the actual outcome and the predicted one suggests that the model may have underestimated the Aggies' offense and overestimated the Phoenix's defensive capabilities.
The decisive factors in this game were North Carolina A&T's exceptional shooting efficiency and rebounding prowess. The Aggies' effective field goal percentage of 73.7% was a staggering 23.5 percentage points higher than their season average, indicating a particularly strong performance from the field. Furthermore, North Carolina A&T's 44.4% OREB rate, 17.8 percentage points higher than their season average, allowed them to dominate the glass and limit Elon's scoring opportunities. These two factors, in tandem, proved to be insurmountable for the Phoenix, as they were unable to keep pace with the Aggies' torrid shooting and rebounding.
The outcome of this game has significant implications for both teams' NCAA Tournament resumes. North Carolina A&T's victory, despite being a Quad 3 game, is a valuable addition to their profile, particularly considering their 0-3 record against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents. This win, combined with their current NET ranking of #272, will likely secure them a spot in the NCAA Tournament, although it may not be enough to guarantee a higher seed. For Elon, a loss in a Quad 4 game will not severely damage their resume, but their 0-2 record against Quad 1 opponents and 2-1 record against Quad 2 opponents will make it challenging to secure a seeding above 12. Ultimately, this win for North Carolina A&T is a crucial step towards solidifying their NCAA Tournament status, but it will be interesting to see if their season ultimately ends in a First Four game.