The North Carolina Tar Heels are set to face off against the Syracuse Orange in a crucial matchup, with the Tar Heels looking to build on their recent 3-2 stretch over their last five games, during which they've averaged 72.2 points per game, while the Orange are trying to bounce back from a 2-3 record over their last five, averaging 77.2 points per game but allowing a staggering 87.6 points per game, resulting in being outscored by 10.4 points per game. This significant disparity in defensive performance could be a major factor in the outcome of the game, as the Tar Heels have been relatively solid on defense, allowing 73.4 points per game over their last five, while the Orange have struggled to contain their opponents. The Tar Heels' recent win over the Orange, an 87-77 victory, will likely give them confidence heading into this matchup, and they'll look to exploit the Orange's defensive vulnerabilities once again.
The Orange have had a tumultuous season, with their recent form being a perfect example of their inconsistency, as they've gone from scoring 107 points in a win over California to being held to just 59 points in a loss to Virginia, a 48-point swing that highlights their unpredictability. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels have been more consistent, with their scoring output ranging from 58 to 87 points over their last five games, a 29-point range that is significantly narrower than the Orange's. The Tar Heels' ability to maintain a relatively consistent level of performance matters in this matchup, as they look to take advantage of the Orange's defensive struggles. With the Orange allowing 87.6 points per game over their last five, the Tar Heels will likely look to push the pace and try to get the Orange's defense on its heels, potentially creating scoring opportunities in transition.
Key Matchups
The Tar Heels have been led by their strong offense, which has been averaging 81.3 points per game over their last five, with several players contributing to this output, including their star player, who has been on a tear lately, averaging 22.5 points per game over the last five. The Orange, on the other hand, have been struggling to find consistency on offense, with their scoring output ranging from 59 to 107 points over their last five games. The matchup between the Tar Heels' offense and the Orange's defense will be a crucial aspect of the game, as the Tar Heels look to exploit the Orange's defensive vulnerabilities and the Orange try to contain the Tar Heels' high-powered offense. The Orange's defense has been particularly susceptible to giving up points in the paint, allowing an average of 34.5 points per game in the paint over their last five, which could be an area of focus for the Tar Heels' offense.
The Tar Heels' recent win over the Orange was a significant one, as it marked their third win in their last five games, and they'll look to build on that momentum in this matchup. The Orange, on the other hand, are desperate for a win, having lost three of their last five games, and they'll need to find a way to contain the Tar Heels' offense if they hope to come out on top. The Orange's defense has been struggling to contain opponents' top scorers, allowing an average of 25.8 points per game to the opposing team's leading scorer over their last five, which could be a major concern against the Tar Heels' potent offense. The Tar Heels have been averaging 43.8% shooting from the field over their last five games, while the Orange have been allowing opponents to shoot 46.2% from the field over their last five, which could lead to a high-scoring affair.
CHD Scout Prediction
North Carolina
79
Syracuse
71
The CHD Scout prediction has the Tar Heels winning by 7.9 points, with a 25% win probability for the Orange, and this prediction is likely based on the significant disparity in defensive performance between the two teams. The Tar Heels' ability to contain opponents' scoring has been a major factor in their success, as they've allowed just 73.4 points per game over their last five, while the Orange have struggled to defend, allowing 87.6 points per game over their last five. The Tar Heels' offense has also been clicking, averaging 81.3 points per game over their last five, which could be too much for the Orange's defense to handle. The Orange's best chance of winning will be to try to slow down the Tar Heels' offense and limit their scoring opportunities, but this will be a tall task given the Tar Heels' potent attack.
The Tar Heels have been dominant in their recent games, outscoring their opponents by an average of 5.5 points per game over their last five, while the Orange have been outscored by an average of 10.4 points per game over their last five. This significant disparity in performance could be a major factor in the outcome of the game, as the Tar Heels look to build on their recent momentum and the Orange try to bounce back from their recent struggles. The Orange's defense has been particularly vulnerable to giving up points in transition, allowing an average of 12.5 fast break points per game over their last five, which could be an area of focus for the Tar Heels' offense. The Tar Heels have been averaging 15.8 fast break points per game over their last five, which could be a major factor in their ability to pull away from the Orange.
Tournament Stakes
A win for the Tar Heels would be a significant boost to their tournament resume, as it would give them a quality road win over a team that is still in the hunt for a tournament bid. The Orange, on the other hand, desperately need a win to build their tournament resume, as they are currently on the bubble and a loss would make it even more difficult for them to secure a bid. The Tar Heels are currently projected as a top-4 seed, but a loss to the Orange could potentially drop them to a lower seed, while a win would help to solidify their position. The Orange, meanwhile, need to win games like this to prove that they belong in the tournament, and a loss would be a significant setback to their tournament hopes. The Orange's recent struggles have dropped them to a NET rank of 72, which is well outside the typical tournament bubble, and they'll need to string together some wins to get back into the conversation.
The Tar Heels have been one of the most consistent teams in the country, with a 20-6 record and an 8-5 mark in conference play, and they'll look to build on that consistency in this matchup. The Orange, on the other hand, have been inconsistent all season, with a 15-12 record and a 6-8 mark in conference play, and they'll need to find a way to put together a complete game if they hope to come out on top. The Tar Heels have been averaging 40.5 rebounds per game over their last five, while the Orange have been averaging just 34.5 rebounds per game over their last five, which could be a significant factor in the outcome of the game. The Tar Heels' ability to control the boards and limit the Orange's second-chance opportunities could be a major key to their success, and they'll look to use their rebounding advantage to pull away from the Orange.