The North Carolina State University Wolfpack and the University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish are set to clash at Purcell Pavilion on February 28, with significant implications for the Atlantic Coast Conference standings. NC State, currently sitting at 10-4 in the ACC, is looking to solidify its position in the conference race, while Notre Dame, at 3-11, is seeking to play spoiler and build momentum for a potential conference tournament run. The Wolfpack, with a strong recent performance against North Carolina, will look to carry that momentum into this matchup, while the Irish will aim to bounce back from a tough loss to Pittsburgh.
This game may seem like a mismatch on paper, given the disparity in conference records and NET rankings between NC State and Notre Dame. However, the small margins that separate evenly matched teams in college basketball can often lead to unexpected outcomes. With NC State projected to win by a relatively slim margin, according to model predictions, this game has the potential to be a closely contested affair. As the Wolfpack looks to bolster its postseason positioning and the Irish aim to salvage their season, the stage is set for a intriguing matchup with plenty at stake, particularly for NC State's conference and tournament aspirations.
Averaging 18.3 points per game collectively, the team's leading scorers have driven NC State's success this season, with the team boasting a 19-8 overall record and a 10-4 mark in the ACC. His 45% three-point shooting has been a key factor, but specific player stats are more nuanced, such as the 14.2 points per game from , who also contributes 5.0 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game. The team's recent form has been marked by inconsistency, with a resounding 82-58 win over North Carolina on February 17, but also a tough 76-77 loss to Miami on February 14, and a disappointing 77-118 defeat at Louisville on February 9.
With 's 6.8 assists per game leading the team, NC State has shown an ability to move the ball effectively, and his 14.0 points per game have been complemented by the strong play of , who averages 13.6 points and 7.0 rebounds per game, and , who contributes 13.4 points and 3.7 rebounds per game. The supporting cast, including , who averages 9.7 points per game, has helped NC State navigate the challenges of the ACC schedule, and his 2.2 assists per game have been a valuable asset, as the team looks to build on its recent win over North Carolina and make a push in the conference standings.
Averaging 18.5 points per game, Markus Burton's scoring ability will be crucial for Notre Dame as they face NC State. The team's leading scorer, with his 3.7 assists per game, will need to facilitate the offense effectively to create scoring opportunities for his teammates, including , who is averaging 15.5 points per game. His 45% three-point shooting has been a significant factor in Notre Dame's offense, and they will rely on him to stretch the defense. With a record of 12-15, including a 3-11 mark in the ACC, Notre Dame has struggled to find consistency, as evident from their recent losses to Pittsburgh, SMU, and Florida State.
In their last five games, Notre Dame has managed only one win, an 89-74 victory over Georgia Tech, where 's 12.1 points per game and 's 12.0 points per game were key factors. 's 9.4 rebounds per game have been a significant asset for the team, providing a strong presence in the paint. As Notre Dame looks to bounce back from their recent losses, they will need to capitalize on their strengths, including Towt's rebounding and the scoring abilities of Burton, Haralson, and Shrewsberry, to challenge NC State and secure a much-needed win.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Ven-Allen Lubin and Notre Dame's frontcourt will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Lubin's ability to score and rebound will be tested against the Fighting Irish's interior defense. If he can establish a strong presence in the paint, it could open up opportunities for his teammates on the perimeter. Conversely, if Notre Dame can limit Lubin's production, it may force NC State to rely more heavily on its outside shooting, which could be a less consistent option.
Lubin's 7.0 rebounds per game suggest he has the ability to control the glass, which could be a significant advantage for the Wolfpack. However, Notre Dame's guards, particularly Markus Burton and Jalen Haralson, have shown the ability to score from the perimeter, which may draw Lubin away from the basket and create opportunities for them to drive or shoot. The battle between Lubin and Notre Dame's interior defense will be a key factor in deciding the game, as it will influence the tempo and flow of the offense for both teams.
CHD Scout Prediction
NC State
80
Notre Dame
73
The model predicts an NC State victory, 80-73, with a 70.9% win probability, and I agree with this assessment. Given the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with NC State at 26 and Notre Dame at 89, it is reasonable to expect the Wolfpack to emerge victorious. Specifically, the large gap in NET rankings suggests that NC State has consistently performed at a higher level than Notre Dame throughout the season, which leads me to believe that they will be able to outperform the Fighting Irish in this matchup.
Tournament Stakes
As the regular season winds down, this matchup carries significant implications for NC State's postseason positioning, with a win potentially bolstering their NCAA Tournament seeding. A Quad 2 victory would improve their overall resume, building on their 5-5 mark against Quad 1 opponents and 6-2 record against Quad 2 foes, potentially solidifying a spot in the middle seeds. In contrast, Notre Dame's only path to the NCAA Tournament is by claiming the ACC's automatic bid, rendering their performance in this game largely inconsequential to their at-large prospects. Nonetheless, a home win against a top-30 NET team like NC State, even if classified as a Quad 1 opportunity for the Fighting Irish, would be a notable upset, and with NC State favored, anything less than a dominant performance will only reinforce the notion that the Wolfpack's tournament stock is firmly tied to their ability to beat the teams they're supposed to.