The Northern Iowa Panthers, with an 8-6 conference record, are seeking quality wins to bolster their NCAA Tournament resume, which currently features a 0-2 mark in Quad 1 games and a 2-4 record in Quad 2 contests. Meanwhile, the Belmont Bruins, sitting at 12-3 in their conference, are looking to strengthen their position on the bubble, having gone 3-1 in Quad 2 games and 11-3 in Quad 3 matchups. This game is classified as a Quad 3 contest for the Bruins and a Quad 1 opportunity for the Panthers, with 74% of the Bruins' games decided by 10 points or less, including their last outing, a 5-point win.
Belmont Bruins' 3-Point Shooting Surge
The game is scheduled for February 12, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET, and will take place at the Curb Event Center Arena, with the Bruins aiming to extend their 7-0 record in Quad 4 games. The contest will be broadcast on ESPN+, with the over/under set at 138.5 points, and the Bruins favored by 4.5 points, with a moneyline of -225.
The Northern Iowa Panthers have compiled a 16-9 overall record, with a NET ranking of 87, and are currently 8-6 in their conference. Over their last 5 games, they have gone 4-1, including a recent 3-game winning streak, during which they averaged 75.3 points per game. The Panthers have struggled in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games, going 0-2 and 2-4, respectively, but have excelled in Quad 4 games, with an 8-0 record. Their Quad 3 mark stands at 5-3, which includes a 72-67 win over the Drake Bulldogs.
Key Matchups
The Belmont Bruins, with a 22-3 record, have established themselves as a strong contender, boasting a NET rank of 59. Their conference record stands at 12-3, with a recent 5-game winning streak, during which they outscored their opponents by an average of 12.2 points per game. The Bruins have gone 3-1 in Quad 2 games and 11-3 in Quad 3 contests, but have not faced a Quad 1 opponent this season. They have a 7-0 record in Quad 4 games, with an average margin of victory of 15.7 points.
The Bruins' offense, which averages 79.1 points per game, will face off against the Panthers' defense, which allows 68.5 points per contest. The Panthers' 3-point shooting, at 36.2%, will be tested by the Bruins' 3-point defense, which has limited opponents to 32.1% shooting from beyond the arc. The Bruins' pace, with an average possession length of 16.3 seconds, may challenge the Panthers, who average 17.9 seconds per possession. The CHD Scout prediction favors the Bruins by 6.3 points, with a 70.6% win probability, citing the Bruins' strong Quad 3 performance and the Panthers' struggles in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games.
CHD Scout Prediction
Northern Iowa
68
Belmont
74
For the Panthers, guard Bowen Born is averaging 18.5 points per game over his last 5 outings, including a 25-point performance against the Evansville Purple Aces. Forward Tytan Anderson has also been hot, with 12.3 points and 7.5 rebounds per game over the same span. For the Bruins, guard Keishawn Davidson has scored 15.6 points per game in his last 5 appearances, while forward Caleb Hollander has contributed 12.8 points and 6.3 rebounds per contest.
Tournament Stakes
The CHD Scout prediction models the game as a 74-68 Belmont victory, with the Bruins having a 70.6% chance of winning. This forecast is based on the teams' respective strengths and weaknesses, including the Bruins' strong Quad 3 record and the Panthers' struggles in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games. The predicted margin of 6.3 points reflects the Bruins' average margin of victory in their last 5 games, which stands at 6.2 points.
A win for the Belmont Bruins would significantly bolster their tournament resume, particularly given the Quad 3 designation of this game. The Bruins' Quad 2 record would remain at 3-1, and their overall NET ranking could improve, potentially moving them closer to a tournament bid. For the Northern Iowa Panthers, a victory would represent a crucial Quad 1 win, enhancing their chances of earning an at-large bid. Their Quad 1 record would improve to 1-2, and their NET ranking could rise, making them a more competitive candidate for a tournament spot.