As we dive into the final stretch of the regular season, the margins between tournament contenders and bubble teams are growing thinner by the day. For teams hovering around the cut line, every quality win counts, and every loss can be a devastating blow to their postseason aspirations. This is precisely the scenario unfolding in Nacogdoches, Texas, where a high-stakes matchup between two Southland Conference foes is set to take center stage. Stephen F. Austin State, boasting a respectable 16-3 record and an 84 NET ranking, is eager to bolster its tournament resume with a quality win, while Northwestern State is desperate to turn its season around and make a late push for a conference title.
The Lumberjacks, riding a three-game win streak, have been dominant on their home court, with their only loss at the William R. Johnson Coliseum coming against a top-100 opponent. Their quad record, although not impressive, reveals a team that has taken care of business against lesser opponents, outscoring Quad 4 foes by an average of 15 points per game. On the other hand, Northwestern State has struggled to find its footing, dropping three consecutive games and sporting a dismal 0-4 record against Quad 1 opponents. The Demons' 302 NET ranking and lackluster quad record suggest a significant uphill battle against a Stephen F. Austin team that has been nearly unbeatable at home.
CHD Scout Prediction
Northwestern State
61
Stephen F. Austin
78
According to the CHD Scout prediction, Stephen F. Austin is poised to emerge victorious, with a projected 15.9-point margin of victory and a whopping 91.6% win probability. While there's no discernible player momentum to speak of in this matchup, the Lumberjacks' overall cohesion and home-court advantage should prove too much for the visiting Demons to handle. With the tournament selection committee keeping a watchful eye on teams like Stephen F. Austin, a convincing win over Northwestern State would not only pad their resume but also strengthen their case for an at-large bid.
In the end, I predict Stephen F. Austin State will triumph over Northwestern State by a comfortable 78-61 margin, leveraging their home-court advantage and superior overall record to secure a much-needed quality win. The Lumberjacks' ability to dominate Quad 4 opponents and protect their home court will ultimately prove too much for the Demons to overcome, setting the stage for a crucial stretch run in the Southland Conference.