The Oakland University Golden Grizzlies will face off against the Indiana University Indianapolis Greyhounds on February 25 at The Jungle, in a matchup that carries significant implications for the Horizon League conference race. As the regular season winds down, both teams are looking to bolster their positioning for the upcoming conference tournament, with Oakland seeking to solidify its standing and IU Indianapolis aiming to play spoiler. The small margins that separate these evenly matched teams will be put to the test, as Oakland and IU Indy clash in a game that could have a substantial impact on the seeding and momentum heading into the postseason.
With Oakland's recent form marked by inconsistency, having gone 1-4 in their last five games, and IU Indy struggling to find consistency all season, this matchup presents an opportunity for both teams to make a statement. The Jungle, IU Indy's home court, will provide a challenging environment for Oakland, who will need to draw upon their experience and depth to secure a crucial road win. As the teams take to the court, the outcome will be far from certain, with the model prediction suggesting a narrow 84-80 victory for Oakland, but the actual result hanging precariously in the balance.
Averaging 16.9 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, while his 6.4 assists per game have been crucial in guiding Oakland's offense. The team's recent form has been inconsistent, with a record of 1-4 in their last five games, including an 81-70 win over Milwaukee and losses to Green Bay, Robert Morris, Youngstown State, and Cleveland State. His 2.7 rebounds per game may not be as impressive, but Brody Robinson's overall impact on the team cannot be overstated. With contributing 14.0 points and 7.2 rebounds per game, Oakland has a solid one-two punch on offense.
His 45% field goal shooting aside, has been a key contributor, averaging 13.8 points and 6.1 rebounds per game, making him a vital part of Oakland's frontcourt. 's 13.0 points per game have also been important, and his 5.6 rebounds per game have provided additional support in the paint. Meanwhile, has chipped in with 10.1 points per game, and his 4.3 rebounds per game have been a welcome addition to the team's efforts. As Oakland heads into the game against IU Indianapolis, they will need to draw on the strengths of these key players to bounce back from their recent losses.
Averaging 19.6 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, but IU Indianapolis's overall performance has been lackluster, with a 7-22 record and a NET ranking of 312. His 3.4 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game have been crucial, but the team's struggles have been evident in their recent form, with losses in four of their last five games, including a 73-85 defeat at Wright State and an 81-84 loss to Northern Kentucky. The team's Quad Record also reveals a concerning trend, with a 2-13 record in Quad 4 games.
With 's 6.2 assists per game, IU Indianapolis has had some offensive spark, and his 9.0 points per game have been a notable contribution. 's 10.7 points per game and 's 11.4 points and 5.7 rebounds per game have also been key to the team's offense, while 's 9.2 points and 3.0 assists per game have provided additional support. Despite these individual efforts, the team's recent losses, including an 88-92 defeat to Milwaukee, have highlighted their need to improve their overall performance, and their sole win in the last five games, an 82-74 victory over Cleveland State, has been a rare bright spot in an otherwise challenging season.
Key Matchups
The pivotal matchup in this contest will be between Oakland's Isaac Garrett and IU Indianapolis's Jaxon Edwards. As two of the most dominant big men on their respective teams, their head-to-head battle will have a significant impact on the game's outcome. Garrett's ability to score and rebound will be tested by Edwards's defensive prowess, and vice versa. If Garrett can exploit Edwards in the paint and secure rebounds, Oakland will have a significant advantage in terms of scoring opportunities and second-chance points.
The outcome of this matchup will be crucial in determining the game's tempo and rhythm. If Edwards can contain Garrett and limit his scoring and rebounding opportunities, IU Indianapolis will be able to dictate the pace of the game and potentially force Oakland into difficult outside shots. Conversely, if Garrett can outmuscle Edwards and establish a strong presence in the paint, Oakland will be able to control the game's tempo and create scoring opportunities for their guards, including Brody Robinson. The winner of this individual battle will likely have a significant impact on the final outcome of the game.
CHD Scout Prediction
Oakland
84
IU Indianapolis
80
The model predicts an Oakland victory, 84-80, with a 63.4% win probability, and I concur with this assessment. While the model's numbers suggest a relatively close contest, I believe Oakland's superior overall record and significantly higher NET ranking will ultimately prove to be the decisive factor, particularly given IU Indianapolis's substantial disparity in strength of schedule and performance. Specifically, Oakland's notable advantage in terms of their NET ranking, at 167 compared to IU Indianapolis's 312, leads me to conclude that they will emerge victorious, as this disparity suggests a substantial gap in the teams' overall quality and competitiveness.
Tournament Stakes
As the season winds down, this matchup takes on significant importance for both teams' conference tournament positioning, with Oakland and IU Indianapolis vying for a favorable seed in the Horizon League tournament. A win for Oakland would bolster their standing in the conference, potentially securing a more advantageous draw in the tournament, while a loss could jeopardize their chances of earning a top seed. For IU Indianapolis, a victory would be a crucial upset, potentially propelling them up the conference standings and into a more favorable position heading into the tournament. Given the low stakes of this Quad 4 matchup, it's surprising that the outcome could have such a profound impact on the teams' postseason trajectories, but ultimately, the reality is that for these two programs, the only path forward is through the conference tournament, and a loss here would be a significant step backward, underscoring the stark reality that for one of these teams, their season will soon be nothing more than a footnote in the Horizon League's history.