The Robert Morris Colonials pulled off a stunning 93-69 upset over the Oakland Golden Grizzlies, defying expectations and sending shockwaves through the college basketball world. This 24-point margin of victory was a far cry from the 9.4-point edge predicted by CHD Scout, and it's clear that Robert Morris was undervalued heading into this matchup. With a NET ranking of 185, Robert Morris was not expected to dominate a team like Oakland, which boasts a NET ranking of 148. However, the Colonials' recent form, which included a 4-1 record over their last 5 games, averaging 74.8 points per game, should have been a warning sign for Oakland. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, had been averaging 81 points per game over their last 5, but their defense had been suspect, allowing 78.8 points per contest.
As the game got underway, it became clear that Robert Morris was the more focused and determined team. They jumped out to an early lead, with Nikolaos Chitikoudis and DeSean Goode leading the charge. Chitikoudis would go on to finish with 20 points and 13 rebounds, while Goode added 18 points and 12 rebounds of his own. The Colonials' balanced attack and stifling defense allowed them to build a 42-38 lead by halftime. Oakland, which had been riding a hot streak, scoring 95 points in their previous game, was held to just 38 points in the first half. The Grizzlies' top scorer, Ziare Wells, was limited to just 8 points in the first half, and it seemed like Robert Morris had found a way to shut him down. The Colonials' 42 points in the first half were a reflection of their efficient offense, which shot 51.7% from the field.
The second half was more of the same, with Robert Morris continuing to pull away from Oakland. The Colonials' Ryan Prather Jr. was instrumental in the second half, scoring 10 of his 18 points and dishing out 5 of his 10 assists. Prather Jr.'s playmaking ability and vision on the court allowed Robert Morris to maintain their lead and eventually build a commanding 24-point advantage. On the other hand, Oakland's Brody Robinson, who had been averaging 14.5 points per game over his last 5, was held to just 16 points on 5-14 shooting. The Grizzlies' inability to find a consistent scoring threat beyond Wells and Robinson ultimately doomed them to defeat. As the final buzzer sounded, it was clear that Robert Morris had made a statement, and their 93-point outburst was a far cry from the 75 points that CHD Scout had predicted they would score.
The prediction from CHD Scout had Robert Morris winning by 9.4 points, and while the actual margin of victory was much larger, it's clear that the model was onto something. The Colonials' recent form and trend data suggested that they were a team on the rise, and their performance against Oakland was no fluke.
CHD Scout Report Card
CORRECTPredicted
Final
The reason why the prediction was correct, despite the larger-than-expected margin of victory, was that Robert Morris was able to exploit Oakland's weaknesses on defense. The Grizzlies had been allowing 78.8 points per game over their last 5, and Robert Morris was able to take advantage of this, shooting 52.5% from the field and scoring 93 points. The Colonials' ability to move the ball and find open shooters was a key factor in their victory, and it's an area where Oakland must improve if they want to make a deep run in the tournament.
As the dust settles on this upset, it's clear that Robert Morris has made a significant statement. Their win over Oakland, a Quadrant 3 game for both teams, will go a long way in boosting their tournament resume. With a current NET ranking of 185, Robert Morris is still a long shot to make the tournament, but this win will certainly give them a boost. The Colonials' 18-10 record, which includes a 4-1 mark over their last 5 games, is starting to look more impressive by the day.
The loss for Oakland, on the other hand, is a significant blow to their tournament hopes. The Grizzlies' NET ranking of 148 is still respectable, but their 14-13 record and 3-2 mark over their last 5 games suggest that they may be on the bubble. This Quadrant 3 loss will not help their cause, and they must regroup and refocus if they want to make a push for the tournament. The Grizzlies' upcoming schedule, which includes games against Detroit Mercy and Youngstown State, matters in determining their tournament fate. With 24 points separating the two teams at the final buzzer, it's clear that Robert Morris is a team to watch, and their 93-69 victory over Oakland will be remembered as one of the biggest upsets of the season. The Colonials' 51 points in the second half were a reflection of their endurance and ability to close out games, and it's an area where they want to build on in their future contests.