The Old Dominion Monarchs will face off against the Marshall Thundering Herd on February 24 at the Cam Henderson Center, a matchup that pits two teams with differing trajectories in the Sun Belt Conference. While Marshall has established itself as a formidable force, Old Dominion has struggled to find consistency, making this a challenging road test for the underdog Monarchs. As both teams vie for positioning in the conference standings, a win for either side would carry significant weight, particularly with the conference tournament looming on the horizon.
Despite being heavy underdogs, the Monarchs have shown flashes of resilience in recent games, going 3-2 over their last five outings. To pull off an upset, they will need to capitalize on any vulnerabilities in Marshall's defense and dictate the tempo of the game. For the favored Thundering Herd, a win would help solidify their conference tournament seeding, but they still need to demonstrate an ability to close out games against lesser opponents, having dropped their most recent contest to Coastal Carolina. A convincing victory over Old Dominion would help alleviate concerns about their consistency and reinforce their status as a top contender in the Sun Belt.
Averaging 16.9 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his 4.1 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game also making him a key contributor. The team's recent form has been marked by inconsistency, with Old Dominion going 3-2 in their last five games, including an 81-86 loss at Southern Miss and an 83-72 win over Louisiana. His 45% three-point shooting has been a notable aspect of KC Shaw's game, providing a significant threat from beyond the arc. With contributing 14.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game, the team has had a solid one-two punch on offense.
The team's 10-19 overall record and 6-10 conference mark reflect their struggles this season, including a 0-2 record against Quad 1 opponents and a 0-4 record against Quad 2 opponents. 's 11.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game have made him a vital part of the team's offense, while Robert Davis Jr.'s 9.8 points and 2.8 rebounds per game have provided additional scoring punch. 's 5.0 rebounds per game have been important for the team, given his role as a key rebounder, and his 8.0 points per game have been a welcome addition to the team's offense, as Old Dominion looks to bounce back from their recent loss to Marshall.
Averaging 14.2 points per game, 's scoring ability has been crucial for Marshall, with his 3.3 assists per game also making him a key facilitator. The team's leading scorer, however, is , whose 16.2 points per game are complemented by 5.6 assists per game, making him a versatile threat. His 4.1 rebounds per game also demonstrate his ability to contribute across the board. With a record of 18-11, Marshall has shown resilience, particularly in their last five games, where they have gone 3-2, including a narrow 81-79 win at Old Dominion.
' 14.8 points per game and 5.5 rebounds per game have provided a significant boost to Marshall's offense, while Matt Van Komen's 7.8 rebounds per game have been vital in securing possessions. 's 7.3 points per game and 1.9 assists per game have also been important in supporting the team's key scorers. His 2.3 rebounds per game demonstrate his willingness to contribute on the glass. With a Quad 3 record of 7-4, Marshall has shown it can compete against similar-level opponents, and its recent form suggests it will be a tough opponent for Old Dominion.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Old Dominion's LJ Thomas and Marshall's Noah Otshudi will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Both players are skilled scorers and playmakers, with Thomas averaging 11.0 points and 3.2 assists per game, while Otshudi averages 14.2 points and 3.3 assists per game. The ability of each player to create for themselves and their teammates will be crucial, as it will put pressure on the opposing team's defense and create opportunities for their own offense.
The outcome of this head-to-head battle will have a significant impact on the game, as both Thomas and Otshudi have the potential to take over and dictate the pace of the game. If Thomas can outplay Otshudi, Old Dominion's offense will likely receive a significant boost, while a strong performance from Otshudi could give Marshall the edge they need to come out on top. The team that emerges victorious in this individual matchup will likely have a significant advantage in the overall game.
CHD Scout Prediction
Old Dominion
73
Marshall
82
The model predicts a Marshall victory, 82-73, with a 76.4% win probability, and I concur with this assessment. Given the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with Marshall holding a substantial advantage at #148 compared to Old Dominion's #250, I believe the Thundering Herd's superior overall performance this season will be the decisive factor in this matchup. Specifically, Marshall's higher NET ranking suggests they have performed better against their schedule, which leads me to expect they will outperform Old Dominion and secure a win.
Tournament Stakes
As the season winds down, both Old Dominion and Marshall are jockeying for position in the Sun Belt Conference standings, with the ultimate goal of securing a favorable seed in the conference tournament. A win for Marshall would help solidify their position near the top of the standings, potentially setting them up for a more manageable path to the tournament championship. On the other hand, Old Dominion is looking to play spoiler and gain some momentum heading into the postseason, where they'll need to make a deep run to extend their season. With neither team boasting impressive records against stronger opponents, this game takes on added importance in terms of conference tournament positioning, and the outcome will undoubtedly impact the trajectory of each program. The fact that Marshall is favored by a significant margin in a Quad 4 game at home against a Quad 3 opponent for Old Dominion speaks to the disparity in their seasons, and Marshall's failure to capitalize on this opportunity would be a damning indictment of their ability to take care of business against inferior opponents.