In a stunning reversal of expectations, the University of Oregon Ducks (Oregon) upset the University of Southern California Trojans (USC) 71-70 at the Galen Center on Saturday. The Ducks, seeded 120th in the NET rankings, outmaneuvered the Trojans, ranked 52nd, by a single point. This decisive upset will likely have significant implications for the Trojans' seed line in the NCAA tournament, while Oregon's victory marks a notable milestone in its season.
The game's narrow margin and statistics reveal a closely contested contest. Oregon's 35-32 lead at halftime set the tone for a back-and-forth second half, where both teams exchanged baskets and turnovers. Ultimately, the Ducks' ability to outscore the Trojans 36-38 in the second half proved to be the difference-maker, as they secured a one-point victory.
Kwame Evans Jr. led Oregon's scoring charge, tallying 21 points on 4-of-9 shooting from the field, including 2-of-3 from beyond the arc. His efficient free throw shooting, converting 11 of 13 attempts, was a significant factor in his overall production. Evans also contributed on the glass, securing 8 rebounds, and added a block on defense. His well-rounded performance was a key factor in Oregon's narrow victory.
Nate Bittle provided a strong supporting effort, finishing with 14 points and 11 rebounds, a double-double that showcased his all-around skills. His shooting percentages were slightly lower than Evans', but his ability to secure rebounds and contribute on both ends of the court made him a valuable asset for Oregon. Takai Simpkins, meanwhile, chipped in with 12 points on 5-of-11 shooting, though his limited rebounding and assists totals were somewhat mitigated by his efficient free throw shooting.
Chad Baker-Mazara's 21-point performance, bolstered by his 6-for-11 shooting from the field and 6-for-6 from the free throw line, was a highlight for USC. However, his lack of assists, with only one made three-pointer, limited his overall impact on the game. Despite his strong scoring, Baker-Mazara's shooting efficiency and all-around play fell short of securing a USC victory.
Ezra Ausar's 15-point, 11-rebound effort was hindered by his 3-for-8 performance from the free throw line, which prevented him from capitalizing on his scoring opportunities. His 6-for-14 shooting from the field and lack of assists also restricted his ability to make a significant impact on the game. Meanwhile, Alijah Arenas struggled to find his shooting rhythm, going 4-for-14 from the field and 1-for-6 from three-point range, and his 5 assists were not enough to compensate for his poor shooting.
Drew Carter's 11-point performance marked a significant departure from his season average, as he more than quadrupled his typical scoring output. His efficiency from the field, converting 4 of 7 shots, and from the free throw line, where he was a perfect 2 of 2, suggests a breakout game rather than a statistical anomaly. Conversely, Dezdrick Lindsay fell short of his season average in nearly every category, but his 3 blocks in a relatively low-scoring game indicate that his defensive impact was still notable. Jacob Cofie's box score was a mixed bag, as he fell shy of his scoring average but nearly doubled his rebounding average, while his 5 blocks were a substantial increase over his season average.
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In retrospect, the pre-game prediction of a 10.7-point USC victory proved to be a significant miscalculation. The Trojans' normally reliable shooting efficiency and three-point percentage were nowhere to be found, as they struggled to find their rhythm on offense. Conversely, Oregon's offense, which had been trending downward all season, suddenly found its footing, with the Ducks' effective field goal percentage skyrocketing to 49.0% - a full 6.7% above their season average.
Upon closer examination, it becomes clear that Oregon's ability to secure crucial rebounds on both ends of the floor proved to be the decisive factor in this game. The Ducks' 27.6% rebound rate, though slightly below their season average, was enough to keep USC's potent offense at bay. Meanwhile, the Trojans' usually reliable rebounding prowess, which had been a key component of their success all season, was noticeably absent, with USC's 35.1% rebound rate falling well short of their season average. This discrepancy ultimately allowed Oregon to control the tempo and secure the upset victory.
For Oregon, Saturday's win over USC marks their first Quad 1 victory of the season, which could potentially boost their NET ranking and further solidify their NCAA Tournament resume. While their overall record remains a modest 10-17, the Ducks' 0-11 mark in Quad 1 games no longer stands as an insurmountable obstacle. They now possess a significant talking point in their at-large bid narrative, one that could potentially land them a No. 12 seed or higher. Conversely, USC's Quad 3 loss is a minor setback for a team that was already well-positioned for a high seed. However, this defeat, combined with their 1-6 Quad 1 record, might now force them into a more precarious seeding scenario, potentially as low as a No. 4 seed.