The Oregon State Beavers stunned the San Francisco Dons 90-63, pulling off a significant upset at The Sobrato Center, considering San Francisco's NET ranking of 106 compared to Oregon State's 201. This 27-point victory marked a substantial departure from the predicted 10.4-point margin in favor of San Francisco, as Oregon State's Jorge Diaz Graham led the charge with 18 points and 5 rebounds. The Beavers' impressive 50-point first half set the tone for the game, outscoring the Dons by 22 points in the opening period.
Oregon State's 50-Point First Half Sets the Tone for Upset Victory
The game unfolded with Oregon State dominating from the start, scoring 50 points in the first half to San Francisco's 28, a 22-point difference that would prove insurmountable for the Dons. By halftime, the Beavers had already built a commanding lead, and despite San Francisco's efforts to close the gap, Oregon State maintained its momentum, scoring 40 points in the second half to secure the 90-63 victory. San Francisco's Ryan Beasley was the top performer for the Dons, scoring 17 points, but it wasn't enough to overcome the Beavers' balanced attack, which saw three players score 17 points or more, including Diaz Graham's 18 points and Isaiah Sy's 17 points, along with 6 rebounds.
Jorge Diaz Graham and Ryan Beasley were the standout performers in this matchup, with Diaz Graham's 18 points and 5 rebounds leading the Beavers, while Beasley scored 17 points for the Dons. Additionally, Oregon State's Isaiah Sy and Dez White each contributed 17 points, showcasing the Beavers' depth and offensive prowess. On the San Francisco side, Legend Smiley and Vukasin Masic added 14 and 11 points, respectively, but the Dons' overall output was overshadowed by the Beavers' high-powered offense, which shot efficiently throughout the game, scoring 90 points on 50% shooting from the field.
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The box score reveals several key statistical takeaways, including Oregon State's 50-point first half, which accounted for more than half of their total points. The Beavers also outrebounded the Dons 35-25, with Isaiah Sy grabbing 6 rebounds to lead the team. San Francisco struggled with turnovers, committing 15, while Oregon State had 10. The Beavers' 40% three-point shooting also played a significant role in their victory, as they made 8 of 20 attempts from beyond the arc, compared to San Francisco's 6 of 20.
The CHD Scout prediction model incorrectly forecasted a San Francisco victory by 10.4 points, with a predicted score of 78-68. Instead, Oregon State dominated the game, winning by 27 points and defying expectations. This outcome highlights the model's limitations and the unpredictability of college basketball, where upsets can occur even when the numbers suggest otherwise. The actual result was a significant departure from the predicted margin, with Oregon State's performance exceeding expectations by a wide margin, scoring 22 points more than predicted.
This upset victory has real consequences for both teams' resumes, particularly in terms of quadrants. For Oregon State, this win counts as a Quadrant 2 victory, improving their postseason prospects. Conversely, the loss drops San Francisco's record to 14-13, with this game being classified as a Quadrant 4 loss, which may hurt their chances of securing a favorable tournament seeding. The NET rankings will also be affected, with Oregon State's current ranking of 201 likely to improve, while San Francisco's ranking of 106 may drop. The 27-point margin of victory will also be taken into account, as it demonstrates Oregon State's ability to win convincingly against a higher-ranked opponent.
The Oregon State Beavers want to build on this momentum in their next game, while the San Francisco Dons will aim to bounce back from this disappointing loss. The Beavers' schedule matters in determining their postseason fate, with several key matchups remaining. San Francisco, on the other hand, must regroup and refocus to avoid a late-season slide, with their next game potentially being a must-win to stay in contention.