In the midst of a conference season that has seen its share of upsets, the Oregon State Beavers and the Santa Clara Broncos will clash at the Leavey Center on February 28th. For the Beavers, a win would provide a much-needed boost in their pursuit of a West Coast Conference tournament auto-bid, their sole route to the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, the Broncos, currently on the bubble, will look to solidify their position with a victory over their conference rivals.
The stage is set for an intriguing matchup, with Santa Clara heavily favored to take the win. However, the Beavers have shown resilience in recent games, posting a 3-2 record over their last five outings, including a convincing 92-82 win over San Diego. As the underdog, Oregon State will look to exploit vulnerabilities in the Broncos' defense and capitalize on Santa Clara's inconsistency on the road. The question is, can the Beavers pull off the upset, or will Santa Clara's depth and experience prove too much to overcome?
The Oregon State Beavers, sitting at 16-14 overall and 9-8 in the WCC, have shown a mixed bag of results in their last five games. Averaging 83.8 points per game during this stretch, the team has secured two decisive victories over San Diego and Pepperdine, respectively. Their most recent win, a 92-82 triumph over San Diego, was built on the back of a balanced attack, with multiple players contributing to the effort. His 45% three-point shooting has been a valuable asset for , who has also grabbed 5.2 rebounds per game this season.
The team's leading scorer, , has averaged 13.3 points per game, complemented by 4.2 rebounds and 4.1 assists. has been a reliable presence in the paint, averaging 10.0 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. Meanwhile, has provided a spark off the bench, averaging 9.6 points and 2.8 rebounds per game. has rounded out the scoring efforts, averaging 6.6 points per game. As the Beavers prepare to face Santa Clara, their ability to execute on both ends of the court will be crucial in determining the outcome of this matchup.
Santa Clara enters this matchup with a 23-7 overall record and a 14-3 mark in West Coast Conference play, buoyed by a strong NCAA NET ranking of #40. The team's recent form has been somewhat inconsistent, as evidenced by a 1-2 stretch over their last three games. Following a convincing 94-73 victory at San Francisco on February 21, Santa Clara suffered a 13-point defeat at Saint Mary's on February 25, their most recent outing.
Averaging 14.0 points per game, has emerged as the team's leading scorer, complemented by , who contributes 16.4 points per contest. rounds out the trio, averaging 11.5 points and 6.7 rebounds per game. His 6.7 rebounds per game also lead the team. The Bronco's 8.6 points per game from and 's 8.4 points per game provide additional scoring punch, as the team looks to bounce back from their recent loss and build momentum heading into the final stretch of the season.
Key Matchups
The point guard matchup between Josiah Lake II and Elijah Mahi is likely to decide the outcome of this game. Both players have been among their team's top scorers and playmakers this season. Lake II has averaged 4.1 assists per game, while Mahi has provided 2.6 assists per contest. However, Mahi has also been more effective in creating scoring opportunities for himself, averaging 14.0 points per game compared to Lake II's 13.3. If Lake II can contain Mahi and force him into tougher shot selection, it could give Oregon State's offense a significant boost. Conversely, if Mahi can continue to draw defense and create opportunities for himself, it could be a long night for the Beavers.
The key to this matchup will be Lake II's ability to stay in front of Mahi and limit his opportunities to drive and draw contact. If Lake II can stay disciplined and focused, he may be able to force Mahi into more difficult shots and limit his scoring opportunities. On the other hand, if Mahi is able to get past Lake II and into the paint, he could create opportunities for himself and his teammates, potentially swinging the momentum of the game in Santa Clara's favor.
CHD Scout Prediction
Oregon State
69
Santa Clara
81
While the advanced model suggests a convincing 12-point win for Santa Clara with an 84.1% probability, I disagree with the forecast. Despite the significant disparity in NET rankings, I believe Oregon State can pull off an upset. One specific reason for my skepticism lies in Santa Clara's relatively modest non-conference performance, which saw the Broncos record a 13-4 mark but against a slate that was largely devoid of top-tier opponents, whereas Oregon State has consistently tested itself against the nation's best.
Tournament Stakes
For Oregon State, this game represents a critical opportunity to bolster their resume with a Quad 1 victory, which could potentially elevate their NET ranking and increase their chances of securing the WCC conference tournament auto-bid. However, a loss would not significantly alter their postseason positioning, as their only path to the NCAA Tournament remains winning the conference tournament. For Santa Clara, a win would add to their growing body of work, including a 7-1 record in Quad 2 games, but a loss would not necessarily jeopardize their NCAA Tournament hopes. More concerning for the Broncos would be a Quad 4 loss, which would further dilute their already thin resume, potentially putting their bubble status at risk.