The Portland Pilots, with a NET ranking of 208, were expected to dominate the Pepperdine Waves, who sat at 284 in the NET rankings, but the Waves had other plans, pulling off a stunning 95-87 upset at the Chiles Center. This win, an 8-point margin, was a significant shock given the 12-point predicted margin in favor of Portland. The Waves' 95 points were a far cry from their average of 75.6 points per game over their last 5 outings, where they had been outscored by 13.2 points on average. In contrast, Portland, who had been averaging 64.8 points per game over their last 5, saw their defense crumble, allowing 95 points, 20 more than their predicted score of 80. The Waves' ability to score 50 points in the second half, including 10 points in the final 2 minutes, was the difference maker, as they outscored the Pilots 50-44 in the second half.
The game was a back-and-forth affair, with both teams trading baskets and neither able to gain a significant advantage. Portland's Joel Foxwell was unstoppable, scoring 35 points and dishing out 8 assists, but it wasn't enough to overcome the balanced attack of the Waves. Pepperdine's Aaron Clark led the way with 29 points, while Javon Cooley added 21 and Styles Phipps chipped in 19 points, 6 rebounds, and 12 assists. The Waves' 45 points in the first half set the tone for the game, and they never looked back, shooting 52% from the field and 40% from three. Portland, on the other hand, shot 46% from the field and 36% from three, but their 16 turnovers and inability to contain the Waves' offense ultimately led to their demise.
The stat lines don't tell the whole story, as Clark's 29 points came on 11-18 shooting, including 3-6 from three, and he was instrumental in the Waves' second-half surge, scoring 17 points in the final 20 minutes. Phipps, meanwhile, was the facilitator, dishing out 12 assists and grabbing 6 rebounds, while Cooley provided a spark off the bench, scoring 21 points on 8-12 shooting. For Portland, Foxwell was the lone bright spot, scoring 35 points on 12-20 shooting, but he received little help from his teammates, as the next highest scorer was Jermaine Ballisager Webb with 16 points. The Waves' ability to shut down the Pilots' supporting cast was key, as they held Garrett Nuckolls to just 11 points on 4-12 shooting.
The CHD Scout prediction of a 12-point Portland win was way off, and it's clear that the model missed the Waves' ability to score efficiently and contain the Pilots' offense.
CHD Scout Report Card
INCORRECTPredicted
Final
The model's failure to account for the Waves' recent trend of scoring 75.6 points per game over their last 5 outings, as well as their ability to exploit the Pilots' defense, which had allowed 76.4 points per game over their last 5, was a major factor in the incorrect prediction. The Waves' 95 points were a season high, and their ability to score from both inside and outside was too much for the Pilots to handle. The model also failed to account for the Pilots' recent struggles, as they had been outscored by 11.6 points per game over their last 5 outings, and had lost 3 of their last 5 games.
The win for Pepperdine, a Quadrant 3 game, is a significant boost to their resume, and could potentially play a role in their tournament hopes, albeit a long shot. The Waves' NET ranking of 284 is still a major obstacle, but this win shows that they are capable of competing with teams above their pay grade. For Portland, the loss is a devastating blow to their tournament chances, as they had been hovering around the bubble. The Pilots' Quadrant 4 loss will likely drop them out of consideration, and they must win out and get some help to get back in the conversation.
The Waves' win changes their tournament picture, as they are now 8-20 on the season, but have a notable win on their resume. While they are still a long shot to make the tournament, this win gives them a glimmer of hope. The Pilots, on the other hand, are now 12-16, and their tournament chances are all but gone. The loss drops them to 2-3 in their last 5 games, and they must win out and get some help to get back in the conversation. The Waves' ability to win on the road, in a hostile environment, is a significant feather in their cap, and they want to build on this momentum as they head into the final stretch of the season. With 8 games remaining, the Waves must win at least 5 of them to have any chance of making the tournament, but for now, they can savor this upset win over a team that was expected to dominate them.