The Saint Mary's Gaels are projected as a top-4 seed in the tournament, with a quad record of 0-3 in Quad 1 games, 4-1 in Quad 2 games, 9-0 in Quad 3 games, and 7-0 in Quad 4 games, while the Pepperdine Waves are in desperate need of quality wins to build a tournament resume, having lost 5 games in Quad 1, 3 games in Quad 2, 7 games in Quad 3, and sporting a 4-4 record in Quad 4 games. With the Gaels averaging 74.5 points per game and the Waves averaging just 63.2 points per game, this matchup has all the makings of a lopsided affair, especially considering the Waves' 3-game losing streak.
Saint Mary's Gaels Have Held Opponents to 60 Points or Less 12 Times This Season
The game is scheduled for February 11, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET, and will take place at the University Credit Union Pavilion, with streaming available on various platforms. The over/under is set at 141.5 points, with the Saint Mary's Gaels favored by 24.5 points, and the moneyline set at -10000 for the Gaels and 3000 for the Waves.
The Pepperdine Waves have struggled mightily this season, with a 6-19 overall record and a 1-11 conference record, resulting in a NET ranking of 284. Their recent form has been abysmal, with a 3-game losing streak, and they have lost 5 games in Quad 1, 3 games in Quad 2, and 7 games in Quad 3. The Waves are averaging just 63.2 points per game, while allowing 71.5 points per game, resulting in a -8.3 point differential. With their quad record and recent form, the Waves are in dire need of quality wins to turn their season around.
Key Matchups
The Saint Mary's Gaels, on the other hand, have had a stellar season, boasting a 21-4 overall record and a 10-2 conference record, resulting in a NET ranking of 28. Their quad record is impressive, with 0-3 in Quad 1 games, 4-1 in Quad 2 games, 9-0 in Quad 3 games, and 7-0 in Quad 4 games. The Gaels are averaging 74.5 points per game, while allowing just 61.2 points per game, resulting in a +13.3 point differential. With their recent form showing 2 wins in their last 3 games, the Gaels are looking to assert their dominance over the Waves.
The Saint Mary's Gaels' stingy defense, which is allowing just 61.2 points per game, will face off against the Pepperdine Waves' struggling offense, which is averaging just 63.2 points per game. The Gaels' defense is ranked 15th in the nation in points allowed per game, while the Waves' offense is ranked 284th in points scored per game. The pace of the game will also be a key factor, with the Gaels averaging 66.5 possessions per game, while the Waves average 65.1 possessions per game. With the Gaels' defense and the Waves' offense being such mismatched units, this game has the potential to be a blowout.
CHD Scout Prediction
Pepperdine
55
Saint Mary's
89
For the Saint Mary's Gaels, players like Alex Ducas, who is averaging 12.5 points per game, and Logan Johnson, who is averaging 10.8 points per game, will be key contributors. For the Pepperdine Waves, players like Maxwell Lewis, who is averaging 14.1 points per game, and Houston Mallette, who is averaging 10.3 points per game, must have big games if the Waves are to have any chance of pulling off the upset. However, with no player momentum data available, it's difficult to say who's hot or cold coming into this matchup.
Tournament Stakes
The CHD Scout prediction has the Saint Mary's Gaels winning by a whopping 34.4 points, with a 99.2% win probability. This prediction is based on the Gaels' dominant defense and the Waves' struggling offense, as well as the Gaels' impressive quad record and recent form. With the Gaels' average margin of victory being +13.3 points per game, and the Waves' average margin of defeat being -8.3 points per game, this prediction seems well within reason.
This game has significant tournament implications for both teams. For the Saint Mary's Gaels, a win would help solidify their position as a top-4 seed in the tournament, while a loss would be a significant upset and could potentially damage their seeding. For the Pepperdine Waves, a win would be a much-needed quality win to add to their resume, while a loss would all but eliminate them from tournament contention. With the Gaels' NET ranking of 28 and the Waves' NET ranking of 284, this game is a Quad 1 opportunity for the Waves, and a Quad 4 game for the Gaels.