The North Carolina Tar Heels, with a 19-5 overall record and 7-4 mark in the ACC, are set to host the Pittsburgh Panthers, who boast a 9-16 record and 2-10 conference record. The Tar Heels, currently ranked 26th in the NET rankings, are coming off a win against a ranked opponent, while the Panthers are riding a 3-game losing streak. With the Tar Heels' Quad 1 record at 5-5 and the Panthers' Quad 1 record at 0-10, this matchup has real consequences for both teams' tournament hopes, particularly for Pittsburgh, who desperately need a quality win to improve their 124 NET ranking.
North Carolina Tar Heels Have a 75% Winning Percentage in February
The game is scheduled to take place on February 14, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET at the Dean E. Smith Center, and will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Pittsburgh Panthers have struggled this season, with a 9-16 overall record and a 2-10 mark in the ACC. They have a NET ranking of 124 and a quad record of 0-10 in Quad 1 games, 2-3 in Quad 2 games, 2-2 in Quad 3 games, and 5-1 in Quad 4 games. The Panthers are currently on a 3-game losing streak, with their last win coming against a Quad 4 opponent. They must pull off a significant upset to improve their tournament chances, particularly given their lack of quality wins, with only 2 wins against Quad 2 opponents.
The North Carolina Tar Heels have had a strong season, with a 19-5 overall record and a 7-4 mark in the ACC. They boast a NET ranking of 26 and a quad record of 5-5 in Quad 1 games, 2-0 in Quad 2 games, 7-0 in Quad 3 games, and 5-0 in Quad 4 games. The Tar Heels are projected as a top-4 seed in the tournament and are looking to solidify their position with a win against the Panthers. With their recent form showing a loss, a win, and a win in their last three games, the Tar Heels want to build momentum heading into the final stretch of the season, having already secured 7 conference wins.
Key Matchups
The North Carolina Tar Heels' offense, which averages 78.5 points per game, will face off against the Pittsburgh Panthers' defense, which allows 72.1 points per game. The Tar Heels' 45.6% field goal percentage will be tested by the Panthers' 42.5% field goal percentage allowed. In terms of pace, the Tar Heels average 73.2 possessions per game, while the Panthers average 69.5 possessions per game. The Tar Heels' 15.1 assists per game matters in exploiting the Panthers' defense, which allows 13.4 assists per game. With the Tar Heels' significant advantage in Quad 1 wins and NET ranking, they are expected to dominate this matchup, particularly given the Panthers' struggles in Quad 1 games.
CHD Scout Prediction
Pittsburgh
62
North Carolina
85
For the North Carolina Tar Heels, players like Armando Bacot, who averages 16.3 points and 10.2 rebounds per game, matters in this matchup. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Panthers will rely on players like Jamarius Burton, who averages 12.1 points and 4.5 assists per game. Unfortunately, there is no player momentum data available for this matchup, but it is clear that the Tar Heels have a significant advantage in terms of talent and depth. With the Tar Heels' bench averaging 23.1 points per game, they want to exploit the Panthers' bench, which averages 18.5 points per game.
The CHD Scout prediction has the North Carolina Tar Heels winning by 22.8 points, with a 96.1% win probability. This prediction is based on the significant disparity in talent, depth, and tournament resume between the two teams. With the Tar Heels' strong Quad 1 record and the Panthers' lack of quality wins, it is likely that the Tar Heels will come out on top in this matchup, particularly given their 85-point average in their last 5 games.
Tournament Stakes
This game has real consequences for both teams' tournament hopes. A win for the North Carolina Tar Heels would solidify their position as a top-4 seed, while a loss would drop them to 7-5 in the ACC. For the Pittsburgh Panthers, a win would be a significant upset and would give them a much-needed quality win to improve their tournament resume, particularly given their 0-10 Quad 1 record. However, a loss would drop them to 2-11 in the ACC and make it even more difficult for them to make a push for the tournament. With the Tar Heels' Quad 3 matchup against the Panthers, they want to improve their quad record and secure a top seed in the tournament.