The University of Portland Pilots travel to the McCarthey Athletic Center on February 25 to face the Gonzaga Bulldogs, with the latter seeking to maintain their dominance in the West Coast Conference. As the regular season draws to a close, Portland, or Pilots, still harbor hopes of making a deep run in the conference tournament, their only viable path to postseason play. Meanwhile, Gonzaga, or the Bulldogs, look to solidify their position as a top seed in the NCAA Tournament, and a win against the Pilots would be a crucial step in that process.
Despite being heavy underdogs, the Pilots have shown flashes of competitiveness, particularly on the defensive end, which could potentially pose problems for the high-powered Bulldogs offense. However, to pull off a major upset, Portland would need to significantly exceed their season averages in multiple areas. For Gonzaga, this game serves as an opportunity to fine-tune their performance ahead of the conference tournament and the NCAA Tournament, where they will face stiffer competition. A convincing win would help bolster their resume, but any signs of complacency or vulnerability could raise concerns about their readiness for the postseason.
Averaging 16.3 points per game, the team's leading scorer is backed by , who also contributes 6.7 assists per game. With a record of 12-17, including 5-11 in the WCC, Portland has struggled to find consistency, as evidenced by their recent 1-4 stretch. His 4.0 rebounds per game are complemented by the efforts of , who pulls down 4.7 rebounds per contest while scoring 10.3 points per game. The team's overall performance has been marked by a lack of success against top-tier opponents, with a 1-3 record in Quad 1 games.
The team's recent form has been marked by losses to Seattle U, Pepperdine, and San Diego, with their last two victories coming against Seattle U and Gonzaga. In those wins, the scoring of , who averages 9.9 points per game, and Mikah Ballew, who scores 9.1 points per game, has been crucial. His 45% three-point shooting is not a notable aspect of Mikah Ballew's game, as that statistic is not available, but Timo George's 4.5 rebounds per game have been a steady presence for Portland. With their most recent loss coming at the hands of Seattle U, Portland will look to bounce back against Gonzaga, a team they have already beaten once this season, with Joel Foxwell and Cameron Williams likely playing key roles.
Averaging 19.9 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his 8.4 rebounds per game also making him a crucial presence on the boards. The team's recent form has been impressive, with wins in their last five games, including a 71-62 victory over Pacific and an 80-59 win at San Francisco. His 2.6 assists per game have also been valuable in facilitating the team's offense. With Braden Huff contributing 17.8 points per game, the team has had a potent one-two punch on offense.
The team's success has been built on the strength of their starting lineup, with 's 11.1 points per game and 5.1 rebounds per game providing a significant boost. 's 8.7 points per game have also been important, while 's 3.8 assists per game have helped to control the tempo of the game. His 45% three-point shooting has been particularly impressive, making him a valuable asset on the perimeter. With their strong recent form and deep lineup, Gonzaga will be a tough opponent for Portland to overcome.
The pivotal matchup in this contest will be between Portland's Joel Foxwell and Gonzaga's Graham Ike. As the primary facilitators for their respective teams, their head-to-head battle will have a significant impact on the game's outcome. Foxwell's exceptional passing ability, as evidenced by his 6.7 assists per game, will be tested by Ike's dominant scoring presence, which could force Foxwell to expend energy on the defensive end. Conversely, Ike's ability to score and rebound will challenge Foxwell's defensive skills, potentially limiting his own scoring opportunities.
The outcome of this matchup will likely dictate the tempo and flow of the game. If Foxwell can successfully contain Ike and maintain his own scoring efficiency, Portland may be able to dictate the pace and create opportunities for their other scorers, such as Timo George and Cameron Williams. However, if Ike can overpower Foxwell and assert his dominance in the paint, Gonzaga's offense may become unstoppable, and the Bulldogs could pull away for a decisive victory. The Foxwell-Ike matchup will be the key to unlocking the outcome of this highly anticipated contest.
CHD Scout Prediction
Portland
63
Gonzaga
89
The model's prediction of a 26-point Gonzaga victory with a 97.3% win probability is a forecast I agree with, as the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings suggests a substantial gap in their overall quality. Specifically, Gonzaga's superior ranking of #5 compared to Portland's #226 indicates a considerable difference in their ability to compete against top-tier opponents, which will likely be the decisive factor in this matchup, allowing Gonzaga to control the tempo and dictate the outcome of the game.
As the regular season winds down, this matchup holds varying levels of significance for each team's postseason aspirations. For Gonzaga, a win would be another opportunity to bolster their already impressive resume, potentially strengthening their case for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament, while a loss would be a Quad 4 blemish that could have a marginal impact on their seeding. Conversely, Portland's postseason hopes are squarely tied to their conference tournament performance, and this game serves as a chance to gain momentum and confidence heading into that crucial stretch, with a potential upset carrying significant weight as a Quad 1 win. With Gonzaga's seeding and Gonzaga's tournament resume already robust, the real question is whether Portland can capitalize on this opportunity to build steam, and ultimately, their only path to the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs' margin of victory will be telling, but one thing is certain: a Portland win would be a seismic upset that would reverberate throughout the WCC.